@Damage In TollandI see what Gibbs meant now with the EURO ENSO guidance that came out today...easy winter outlook if that's right. Could still get a biggie in latter January or February, though.
I will say it's too early to really use guidance...need to get past the spring predictability barrier....I just don't like the periodicity for a super-event....they usually occur about Avery 15 years or so and we aren't there yet.