40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Not attacking you, just the idea that we should disregard that run -
That run of the EURO looks just like March 14, 2018 just before it hit....I agree it would throw precip further west than that, though. Point is that it also appeared to jackpot PYM then, too....ended up IMBY
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How many of those tweets could you find two weeks ago? You probably didn't care because you got the 10mile wide band...
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Yea, more often than not its a real flag.
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I still give you double digits.
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This is exactly what I expected to happen...I knew the early capture and stall was BS....I think we are arriving at our solution....deform from me to perhaps CTRV as western goal post
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Yea, was just gonna say...that run is 2'+here.
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The qualifiers are starting to emerge in posts
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Said everyone before my two week prior boning lol
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Not sure about that....I mean, if they really tighten, maybe residence time is decreased and they collpase back se faster? NAM was kind of like that
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The only way this rule RE NW adjustment for band fails is if mid levels just fail to develop in time, but that is unlikely...question is more just about closure to prolong things.
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Typical? Its just all track specific....some deform me, some deform the Adirondacks...depends on track and size of circulation.
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Absolutely...thank you. Then correct that 30-50 mi further NW.
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I am assuming it won't place said gradient far enough west on model output.
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Right.....which is why they probably won't jackpot, as it looked like maybe yesterday. ORH will be just far enough west to get that, and I'll be just far enough east to miss it.
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YES. I am confident. Tremendous inflow
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I just don't see how WOR misses out if we take a compromise of the GFS and EURO......as is, EURO deforms Berks to near Dendrite, GFS like ORH to me. They probably won't jackpot, but a sizable storm to be sure.
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I would say look at the H7 temp gradient, which is where it should be according to the model, but adjust it like 30 to 50 miles NW, since this system will have such an overwhelming inflow. ...of course, this is all assuming that the model is synoptically well placed to begin with. If its track is too far east, then adjust even further NW.
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You aren't going to see the deformation zone show up in QPF charts.
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I don't that it will capture that late, or as early as EURO.
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It def. toned down quite a bit.
