40/70 Benchmark

February with 41.3". These type of patterns take time, but seldom fail to produce for us.

This is January 1969 with 0.9".

No. How about this one?

I want to play a game......someone tell me how much snow Boston received this month?

This is not some silver bullet that will torpedo the winter, but rather the difference between this year and 1995-1996.

Yea, that's what kills the first several days of the post 12/10 period for alot of folks...block is inhibited on the western limb, where it matters, and the west coast takes on a full latitude trough type of look. That's not a deal breaker....just more of a nuisance that delays things. But these types of patterns out west were planned for in my conceptualization, which is why I explicitly stated that the mid atl likely waits until January to cash in big time, and white xmas along the SNE coast is more dubious...inland SNE and of course NNE good to go.

Yea, of course its too much. Most of us know each other so it isn't a big deal. Nothing personal...sometimes I just sense an annoying kind of tendency to search for the easiest path to get a rise out of folks, like a few other guys on here. Again, nothing personal...just more of a shot at your forum mojo.

Fire it up.

Big blocking patterns set us up for this....we get lots of hype leading them, but the payoff is usually delayed. Add in that it's the start of the season and it's a perfect storm of angst.. especially considering we got screwed by the largest RNA on record last December.

Right.

It's tough to ever look great for the coast in early Dec, though...climo is what it is.

Initially, yes. Its serviceable for the coast...just more of an uphill battle.

The best pattern for SNE is not neg NAO +PNA IMHO ...that is ideal for mid atl and se. What we should hope for is neg NAO, neg EPO/modest RNA split flow...have a conga line of PAC SWs head east and run into: 1) The block sending the wave underneath us. 2) Arctic air spilling in from the M stream via the AK ridge.

God, you are such a puke. They implied that the GEFS and GEPS may be handling the Pacific better in that the neutralization of the RNA will be delayed (which I agree with)....has nothing to do with his point, which was the NAO block sending the chain of PAC shortwaves south and under said block. Classic neg NAO/RNA snow pattern.

YES.

Bullshit. Some of our best patterns take place with an RNA/neg NAO....the RNA just can't be extreme.

Yea, I got burned hard core in 2020...one of two huge busted seasonal forecasts. I don't foresee an official SSW this year...just MHO.

Usually the big events that I do get in the first half of December are from SWFE, etc...not coastals....in a way, it's better for the coast to hold off on the big coastal pattern.

I agree w Kev, it would be great to snow from Tday through St Paddy day, but it just doesn't work like that.

At this range, I am more confident I'm this pattern materializing than I was March 2018....that was many strat...this is strat and tropics...probably more tropics. Patterns dependent on mainly strat are riskier bc funky shit can happen with PV splits, etc.

I would get it if we were seeing a black hole over AK with a death star PV, but 'cmon....so we wait until climo gets better and are closer to the holidays...boo hoo lol. This isn't going to go away or fail...its rooted in the stratosphere and tropics. It's not just clown range model antics. Could we still just end up with shit luck and not much snow? Sure, but odds are against it.

Funky Murphy's, Worcester.

Thing is I can't count on one hand the number of major snow storms I have had prior to 12/10.....people just totally forget that..why folks in SNE want a great pattern on 12/5 is beyond me....holding off isn't the worst outcome.

I guess in some alternative universe 12/6 is after 12/10....the weather weenie XFiles