40/70 Benchmark

Well, I can't control that....only deal with data that I can access. Probably....

I get that it may not be as big a drive of the pattern as it could be if centered further north, but its a lot closer to a modoki like el nino look (seen below) than some to the crappy looks.

That still looks much more like a nice forcing regime than a warm one.

Bottom line is that its a judgement call at the end of the day...but there are very few events, especially ones that aren't really weak, that are entirely confined to a certain area...so I tend to judge by where the concentration of strongest anomalies is centered, not necessarily minimum el nino/la nina criteria. Its the stronger events in which structure is more important because forcing is more diffuse with greater variance in the weaker events, so you don't want to have such stringent criteria in distinguishing what can be pretty pivotal differences with respect to type classification.

Some of us have been saying all along that the GEFS have been better with respect to the Pacific. I'm betting on that to continue, but we'll see.

Exactly...anyone looking for clarification, head over to my outlook thread and read the latest post, which actually uses the MJO filtered VP output from the Ventrice site: And while previous attempts have failed due to the deconstructive interference pose by cool ENSO's proclivity to relegate tropical forcing to the marine continent, there are drastic, albeit not unanticipated changes taking place. Here is the forecast for the progression of tropical forcing over the course of the first half of January, courtesy of Mike Ventrice: Note the steady progression of the the tropical forcing, denotes by negative vertical velocities steadily progressing towards the dateline. This is the polar opposite of modoki la nina favored tropical forcing, which is the milder type of la nina regime that that favors forcing in the maritime continent and mild conditions on the east coast.

I don't mean dire in the sense that its 60 for weeks...but just dire in that guidance is offering more PAC puke and no big potential. Still not convinced we don't see arctic air, but we don't need it.

This, in addition to the NY holiday, is why I stepped back for a few days....I don't buy the dire long term considering how I expect tropical forcing to materialize, but I know that would fall on deaf ears given the mood in here, so just didn't bother...aside from that last bog update prior to the new year.

It'd be cool if there was a pack...

WOW....players for the big dance are starting to show up. Just need guidance to play the right tone of music....

Yea, the one time I don't want to win...and guess what..

Hey, they are experienced...

I have a lot of writing to do tomorrow....billing issues bogged me down too much today. Insurance companies blow big ones

Gotcha....misperception on my part given the tone in here reading back a few days.

I'm sure this is the set up that I'll "jackpot" in...with the grand prize being 41 and drizzle amid bare, muddy ground.

No issue with breaking balls, but at least wait for it to actually bust.

There were a few other references to me that I saw scanning back...which I just laughed off, but really in the same vein under the guise of humor.

Won't know that for 3-4 weeks. The most obnoxious characteristic about this place is the footie pajama-infantile defense mechanism of projecting weather frustration onto others....usually those who venture to put forth a public effort.

Sadly my left and right nut....he has like 15 years of regression on his tab...bill is due, bi$%&. Pay up-

Is it safe? Are we through the desprssive episode in here and back to mania? Because guess what...its going to snow this month, and probably a good deal for most of us.

Look how weak the positive anomalies are near S America...

With an ENSO event that strong, they are just about always basinwide by strict definition...that is about as west biased as you will ever see at that intensity. Text book modoki. Check our of VP from that season that I posted in my last blog update..

09-10 was def west based...even though it was basin wide

Define transient....Feb return of RNA?