40/70 Benchmark

I think this is going to be a rt 128 storm.

06z GFS has one of the more extreme gradients I have seen around SNE lol That would be a trip

TBH, it would be the best thing that has happened this winter for me....quite literally.

Good to see some offshore members.

You're on fire this AM lol

His point was that it really didn't influence snowfall amounts that much....but that doesn't mean that there weren't significant changes.

DT was saying that to me on twitter last night....I mentioned that 00z GEFS trended well east, and he said they didn't change much. I was like the mean went from Boston to the Benchmark lol

Yea, you were better with the time frame...awesome. I was off by a few days last fall and had the RNA to PNA handoff backwards. January Analogs: 1955, 1956, 1971, 1996, 2006 (x3), 2001, 2018, 2012, 1989, 1965, 1976 "There is a slight chance of a KU magnitude, Archambault type east coast snowfall between approximately December 28th and January 11th, as any residual high latitude blocking erodes and heights lower in the vicinity of Alaska and western Canada. Heights will also lower in the western US as the aleutian ridge retrogrades into the pacific and a sustained RNA accompanies the development of an active, zonal pacific storm track.

Doubt it back here.

Track is dependent on degree and timing of phasing...not that simple.

Quick note on GEFS.....that track is the mean of OTS camp, and interior hit camp. Some have stronger southern wave that remains discrete from n stream and scoots out to sea. Path to most snow is probably a slight tic east with a good front ender bc the other option is probably a brush if it doesn't phase. I favor the slight tick east

Why do you think the GEPS didn't change?

Yea, the blizzard, I think.

CMC ensembles are still hideous.

Thanks so much, Chris...learn a ton from your insight. Expect a canal census to emerge.

GEM and UK didn't, either...EURO pending...

Right, but wouldn't the OP go east, too then?

Why did the GEFS go east so much with that new data?

Vice versa...ensembles already there

Hmm John was saying that trending weaker would send it east...

I'll bet OPs shift east tomorrow when that SW is sampled.

My call remains upper cape..like Falmouth..maybe canal

I'm just kidding, sorry if I offended you.

Pop the dentures in and chew a gummy

So in this case, greater western heights are bad....holy shit the irony considering December...not sure whether to laugh or cry.