40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I was nervous about it, but DT seemed to just discount the OP due to ensembles. -
There are plenty of rules, but when said rules mean snow this winter in Methuen, MA, then we learn how there are a myriad of exceptions to said rules. I'm sure the ensemble means will gets its MOJO back when the OP amps up for a blizzard next week.
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Except with potent ocean storms, then the seaward mean reigns supreme.
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GEFS have been pretty dispersive from the OP with respect to this system.
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Can we talk about how utterly useless the ensembles appear to be right now? All they have done is slowly chase the OP on all 3 major suites.
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I count 10 GEFS members that would warm sector me.
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Same thing....jesus, who cares. I95 in Mass.
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Well, it doesn't have to stay set in stone...it could go from Albany to Berkshires lol
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I will take this set up over 5" of pixie dust and an I95 orgy any day...said it last week, and am saying it now.
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Yes. I will take 5" of paste here followed by rain, over 6" of pixie dust that evaporates 24 hours later.
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Yea, well....this will be better than last Friday for me, so its all about persepctive.
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Friday is not thumping anyone.
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Starting to think NE maybe be best with that look....def getting SWFE like, as the primary runs into the confluence behind that departing ocean low.
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No reason to doubt a LI to cape/far se MA track.
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Was hoping no one would acknowledge.
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I think that is very doable.
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You can start to see some minny screw zones show up in downslope areas due to the easterly fetch.
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Its a actually a hair better than 00z.
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I think its also easy to get carried away with the negative inertia of recent trends and lose sight of the fact that even the 00z EURO is a major winter storm outside of I 495. I'm guilty of it myself.
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They got shredded.
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Phasing does often end delayed, hence NE...no doubt.
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I was speaking more to thermals....the usual clown suspects were relatively reserved, but that usually stingy algorithm saw something it liked. I think it speaks to the ample easterly inflow coupled with strong antecedent airmass.
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Will, what do you make of this? That is not clown algorithm and its usually conservative, but it seems a bit overzealous in this case. The other clown maps are very little... Think it just really likes the antecedent airmass?
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00z EURO still puts down over a foot of snow in ORH country on the narcan map.
