40/70 Benchmark

Feb 2015?

Could I be wrong and they are right....winter totally blows? Sure, but I'll trust in the weeks of research that I did late this fall, rather than tie my emotions to bipolar long range guidance.

You can always find some guidance that sucks.....as I said, the GFS has done better with the Pacific this year. I'm not going to beat my head against a wall...like I said yesterday, the reverse psych gestapo that believes that it will never snow again is out in full force and there will be no convincing them otherwise until it does.

More favored in eastern QBO, which is part of the reason that I didn't expect one.

Remind me to stay home behind locked doors that week.

I only worded it that way because I had just made a post to the effect that although the season may play out similarly, its unwise to anticipate as much snow as we had in 2010-2011 and December is a good example of why.

Yes, SSW are a definite wild card...really all I meant to imply. But regardless of how it manifested (or didn't) itself in the pattern, I didn't expect one in the technical sense, so that would be a curve ball that may or may not alter what was expected in at least a portion of February.

Ditto.

I have 2"...still feel good about at least reaching normal, which is in the low 60s.

The only two that are of much relevance are 2021-2022 and 2010-2011.

I try to get out a December wrap up and January update today or tomorrow.

Sorry, I just feel like I spend all of this time articulating my thoughts on the season in one package, and then people read waaay too much into what I post in casual dialogue on a chat forum. Mostly Raindance, but I guess I projected that frustration onto you a bit. I'm probably most nervous about my February thoughts....any official SSW would be a deviation from the expected, so hopefully it occurs early in January.

I don't feel nervous about this in the slightest...TBH, I feel more confident than I did a month ago because I knew that I was betting on this season leaving something on the table....and now it has. City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 40-50" ? ? NewYork, NY(Central Park) 25-35" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 15-25" ? ? Baltimore, MD 10-20" ? ? Washington, DC 5-15" ? ? Albany, NY 75-85" ? ? Hartford, CT 50-60" ? ? Providence, RI 30-40" ? ? Worcester, MA 75-85" ? ? Tolland, CT 55-65" ? ? Methuen, MA 60-70" ? ? Hyannis, MA 20-30" ? ? Burlington, VT 90-100" ? ? Portland, ME 85-95" ? ? Concord, NH 80-90" ? ?

That is not below normal in most of the area, first of all. Secondly, I feel like I have been detailed enough with respect to my thoughts regarding this season.

15.8 for the low

GFS has schooled it where it counts this season....PAC.

Yea, something like that...

I have all or my numbers down, so quote those.

I think we could still see 2010-2011 totals minus 20-30" or so...

That guy is brutal.

This is why it's never wise to go with 2010-2011 totals in a la nina. The DM pattern may very well end up looking similar, but alot went right that year.

I never, ever feared suppression this month...no brainer IMO.

1955-1956 is one of my favorite analogs.

Linning up the quotes....

Yea, frankly ...I am just sitting out right now....given how high the frustration meter is, its going to fall on deaf ears, for the most part. There is a contingent that are just in full-tilt "obnoxiously defiant reverse psych mode" and are going to put up resistance to the mere notion that it will ever snow again. I just assume wait that out until they flip into extreme winter mode again once something becomes more imminent.