40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I have a dream that many wouldn't like...but just once in my life, I want an epic, grind-society-to-a-halt blitz to start slowly around midday of xmas eve.....go nuts all xmas eve, maybe a slight let up before dawn just for the sake of being realistic, and then rage on again through xmas morning and not winding down until around sunset xmas evening. As much as I adore Xmas, I want plans ruined and holiday travel incapacitated.
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I wouldn't say that....I just think we are on the same page.
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This pretty much how I described the evolution of December last month...slow start for the coast, but gets going.
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Only March 1979 and March 2011 from that list (2/9) registered a positive NAO. Check this out: Have some poleward Aleutian ridging lol
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I wasn't very confident that my blocky March composite was correct, which I communicated in the write up, but after looking at that Dec -AO list...I am convinced that I am on the right track.
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This argues that we also seem some late season blocking, which my analog composite implied.
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I had doubts about the coast from SNE down into the mid atl, but its looking better. Its always looked good for the interior IMO.
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Obviously 2000, 2010 and 1995 have the most relavence. But, yea....we can live with this composite.
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Gotcha. Yea, those daily nuances tell the tale.
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Only thing is that this wasn't a technical SSW, and that was. This is why I didn't hit that PV split harder with respect to ramifications in December. We agreed on bocking...it was just tough to pin down timing between December and January.
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That doesn't frustrate me....obviously they will get snow earlier, later and more of it. I just hate when I get porked, and the thread turns into an upslope orgy.
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Well, sure....but when you are doing an overview of a season, you have to analyze at a monthly level. You can analyze dailies in hindsight, but you can't forecast the daily variation.
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1997 was more like Dec 1992 and March 2013....just deep layer easterly fetch off of the Atlantic advecting copious moisture.
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No...there are a couple of others....Nov 22-28, 1950, and Dec 29-31, 1962. Page 186, volume I of KU book.
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Yea, I def. included that stuff in my outlook. Thanks so much for linking that article. Paul is right, though, about it also being linked to the stratosphere..its easy to forget that there is a lag for blocking to develop for a PV split. We saw this in 2018...the split was in February, while we were roasting....then everything evolve din March. I am annoyed with myself for overlooking that and not playing up Dec blocking more than I did.
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None of these winters sucked, albeit frustrating for some areas for various reasons. I do expect a big mild stretch like 2005-2006, later in the season.
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Complete same page. This episode of blocking is not a one-off.
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1976, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2010 were all at least -2SD in December.
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While there remains some residual stratospheric warmth from last month's split of the PV, which makes sense as a balancing force given the cool southern stratosphere, this first round of blocking is more triggered by the tropics IMO. However, there is a favorable background state for further disruptions of the PV.
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Yea, a bit further east and a more impressive airmass. BTW, those systems that develop with frontal appendages protruding on the poleward side are a rare breed capable of truly exotic snowfall.
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I watched that this week...classic. That scene always makes me think of scooter now lol
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This is why I didn't forecast 2010-2011 seasonal totals, despite having a very similar seasonal progression with perhaps even a better ending. Is it well within the realm of plausibility? You bet....would it shock me? Nope, but its just not the most likely outcome, especially in a la nina season. I am more inclined to really swing for the fences in an el nino.
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Thanks, @greenmtnsnowman19
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1996 was really good up to about Lawrence...I had like 7" of sand where I am now, but I was at my mom's in Wilmington then and had about 18".
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.63" tonight 2.78" on the month
