40/70 Benchmark

.23" RF today...Hi of 56

I will take -NAO/RNA regime over -NAO/+PNA....especially in December.

Take a look at January 1969....brutal luck, then shit hit the fan in February.....1995 was the exception in that the pattern paid off immediately. That usually isn't the case....much like everything else in nature, there is a lag...just like with respect to the seasons relative to the sun.

I'm the first one to melt and bitch when I feel like things have gone wrong, but we just aren't there yet.

Yea, the first half of the pattern always favored the interior in my mind, too.....so figure the window open between 12/10 and 12/14 for interior...the coast joins the frey after mid potentialwise mid month and we also can't forget that the first couple of cracks at it often don't pan out in these patterns....so the coast could very easily be waiting until around or just before xmas without anything having gone wrong pattern wise. This is why I stressed that the coast may nor have a white xmas and kost of the fun comes in January when I wrote everything up in November. It looked like maybe things were speeding up, but that has ceased.

Except in a negative PNA/NAO pattern...its cold east and west in the north.

Is still too rushed? Maybe...its always been a matter of when, not if. I originally expected the fireworks in January, anyway

It's not just about model forecasting skill, though. This big block is not going away....do I trust long range guidance? No. But I do trust my ability assess the tropical landscape, and the tropics and to a lesser extent the stratosphere is not going to allow this to go to crap. Not happening. Now, if someone is going to yell bust because we don't end up with January 2011 or March 2018, then that is on them.

This still has historic potential.

Anything before 12/14 was always gravy....that's only the first few days of the post 12/10 that I cited last week.

Through an IMBY lens, I would prefer this over arctic flood gates pouring in. I'll take my chances here....the ceiling is immense.

Sorry, it was right after me,so got confused

Having some factors being more hostile than others isn't prohibitive to snow....I'm mot saying its December 2001. All I mean is that it's not frigid and the coast may squirm early on. The RNA is relatively hostile this month...on obviously that doesn't mean it can't snow.

Yea, things have trended a bit more towards the type of progression that I had envisioned last month for the month of December....with the need to fight the Pacific alot this month, which favors up and in....at least initially. Albeit the NAO is still more aggressive earlier relative to what I had thought. Anyway, December looked to me like a slow build up for alot of us and that looks to be the case. Nothing is "cancelled", troll lens not withstanding.

GFS is better than the CMC, dude

@Ginx snewxAny room next to you? I think it's a good time to just sit and smile for awhile...

Yea, this is why I just made a general post describing the pattern and the inherent potential that comes along with it. But I won't post anything about specific threats until sometime next week at the earliest.

I think some of use would be okay, too.

You aren't much higher than my "conservative" ranges lol

Yea, I like him more for medium range.

And yes, I got that image from DT..before I get accused of copying his outlook.

PS: Your claim that the NAO doesn't matter in during December of a la nina is just as ridiculous as your accusations: The west is cold due to the RNA...its not difficult.

What point did I miss? I was simply speaking of the December NAO....nothing more. I'm not sure what your issue is, but you are one ill human being. I have the west colder because I expect an RNA in December, which looks correct. Not a big leap of faith in a la nina. It has nothing to do with you. You issued your outlook in October, and I developed my sensible analog composite in SEPTEMBER....as the link below illustrates. The only tweak that I made to it in November was to add one 2010 and one more 2020. I solicit information regarding your view on things for the same reason that I do with anyone else on social media....because I value your input. Have I incorporated some of the tools that you use such as ACE, solar and sensible weather analogs? Yes, because I felt as though I was too dependent on ENSO, but I developed the composites myself. ENSO Continues to Stagnate as Winter Clarity Increases | Eastern Mass Weather I have a pretty ferocious first half of winter in the east with the NAO trending negative in December, and you do not....you are wayyyy off base with these outlandish claims. Anyone who reads my stuff is pretty convinced that I thoroughly research everything and spend far too much time to simply copy a forecast, dude. Stop making accusations about my work when you don't even read it...its both ignorant and absurd.

I think scooter may have visited, too....I was pretty out of it....the meds that they had me on actually made me violent, which is totally not in my nature. I was threatening staff, etc....was nuts.

That must be off, its north of Steve and his dogs.