40/70 Benchmark

I don't disagree, but that is a ton of work. Interested to see if we score a biggie in the 1/6 to 1/20 timeframe that I identified back in early November.....

Paul, if you recall, 2020-2021 actually featured a mean DM +PNA and even last season was decidedly +PNA after the record RNA December. I know you are referencing more than the PNA here, but just pointing that out. I get what you are saying regarding the emboldened and have wondered that myself. Its probably the difference between my area ending up with like 45" or 65" of snowfall. I don't see an abysmal season as being in the cards.

It was both one of my five primary seasonal analogs, and primary ENSO analogs....its a good way to illustrate how things could go right from here on out.

I don't think there this is one person implying that everything is awesome....the upside at this point is a normal to slightly above season....with a narrow pathway to significantly more.

I'm usually not huge on the "la nina is dying, so that will help late" train, but that seemed to be a factor in 1956...it could actually play a role this season. Regardless of any SSW, I do expect a nice March (yea, I know the sun will melt it and it sucks that December didn't deliver for the holidays and low sun angle). -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 1956 -1.1 -0.8

I think the Pacific will look better than that this January.

I doubt it...

Here is how January 1956 evolved... Look familiar? It should...

This season compares fairly favorably to December 1955:

Well, I am going to finish the month of December with 2" of snow. Since 1950, there have been 6 other cold ENSO seasons in which my locale received 3" or less of snowfall during the month of December. 1955-1956: 2" with a seasonal total of 87.3" 1973-1974: 1.8" with a seasonal total of 44.8" 1988-1989: 2.6" with a seasonal total of 20.3" 1998-1999: 1" with a seasonal total of 41.9" 1999-2000: T with a seasonal total of 33.3" 2021-2022: 2" with a seasonal total of 42.5" This bolsters confidence in my seasonal forecast range of 60-70" because while the mean seasonal snowfall is only 45", it would be wise to hedge upwards given how the month of December actually evolved. Note the utter lack of high latitude blocking in the composite:

I would be surprised, yes. I do not expect anything more than a transient pig, nor do I expect an RNA month of January.

They mean the overall pattern.

At least la nina will finally relinquish its grip.

Never mind the fact that it likely needs to be done under the cover of night.

Looks like its a bit more PNA ridging that allows that little wave to dig enough....who knows.

I wouldn't worry much about it

GFS is a Methuen special order.....classic Miller B-East. That said, it probably ends up more of a Miller E....as in eat shit.

The EURO looks more par for the course for Methuen.

False. Pacific looked epic.

The future is uncertain, and when it hasn't snowed yet for much of the region, the default setting is reverse psych. I have 2" on the year after a -6SD NAO block..yea, I lost my shit, but you have to get over it and try to be objective moving forward.

Yea, same conclusion as me, only different angle to get there. Thanks.

The pattern will not be held in place by SST anomalies....they can help to sustain when everything else is favorable.

Bingo....the whole "jet retraction" concept eludes me, but I am confident that the Pacific will be good in January. If that is what delivers, then sign me up. Care to explain the jet retraction stuff?

I've been expecting pretty normal snowfall since November....when many expected the epic December, and I still do now....while the bipolar pendulum swings towards "it will never snow again".