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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. If course, we managed to torch in the few days before xmas...
  2. Yea, rare breed. ..probably helped that it was a two-pronged event.
  3. That event was excellent....I had like 20" over the two days...similar to 12/2019.
  4. I'll aim for middayish....hopefully a threat to track, but I have a feeling December starts slowly and mild.
  5. I don't think it's a horrible analog..flawed, sure, but there are certainly much worse.
  6. The PNA and PDO are not as highly correlated as many think.
  7. The last two years are def. decent analogs.
  8. I prefer 40s and overcast in the fall.
  9. I believe there is some sort of negative correlation between October and the winter, while there is a positive correlation between November and winter. But the October snow argument is a myth.
  10. CFS thinks I am on the right track for Novie:
  11. TBH, I need October to warm up in the east, and cool off in the west for my analogs to continue looking good.
  12. He has said he like 2000-2001 as an analog.
  13. Well, you mentioned "now that October SAI is out", like it matters what it is mid month...maybe I read too much into it...
  14. We are have way through the month....I would hold off on using the SAI.
  15. https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/
  16. Exactly how I feel. Everyone shuns it once they realize it isn't the silver bullet of seasonal forecasting. It's just another tool...like the QBO, etc
  17. So wasn't conjuring up electricity hundreds of years ago.
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