40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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An early ERC could help explain some of the structural issues....
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Once these things undergo RI, its often even under modeled, so it can easily catch up. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in short term trends yet....but the dry air entrainment this far south maybe something to keep in mind for once it gets further north.
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Isn't it ironic that a weaker initial system and longer term track to the east is "bad" for once....
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I would still strongly hedge that it will. its being delayed....maybe it means a cat 3 peak, as opposed to 4....
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Yea, nobody knows, really.
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If there were ever a season to pull that off....
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Probably why we are still waiting for the EW to close off....its slowed things down some.
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Just making the same obs and drawing the same conclusions.
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Too many folks are approaching this like its a slam dunk, PV on roids season.
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That's the point; nobody is sure of anything with respect to the eruption, aside from its influence in the S HEM.
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Yea, that's what I meant.....I think I recall ECMWF admitting that the last round of upgrades prioritized the mid latitudes at the expanse of the tropics.
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GFS has closed the cap, to a degree, on the EURO IMHO.
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Looking at just how far west some these runs are, sure....it just depends on how close it gets to the west coast of FL. I shouldn't have initially been so dismissive before viewing all of the AM suite.
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I'm not sure Hunga Tonga doesn't trend the polar strat warmer in the N HEM.
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If anything, a system crawling has more time to build the fetch and then you add excessive freshwater flooding from 20"+ RF.
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Spare Florida of major wind damage, which isn't the primary threat, anyway.
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Nice core.
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Yea, it has to intensify some, or else it peaks as weak and I do think it sneaks into moderate territory.
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I mean in terms of structural damage.
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Wind won't be the story with this one.
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All I said was it didn't match '38.
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Wake me Up....when September Ends....
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
39.0 last night. -
Yea, this is why I was saying the further west it goes, the weaker the LF. N gulf coast will primarily bring hydro issues.
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Wake me Up....when September Ends....
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
My grass is growing the fastest since May. -
I still say you want this in faster, and further south if you want an intense LF. I suspect a N GOM collapser if not.
