40/70 Benchmark

No question in E NE. Not close.

No.

After that advertised break. You may need a breather. 2" by 12/9 would be fine with me...about what I would expect.

Free for all

I feel like the Pacific is less favorable than 1995, which is why you guys may need to wait until January to deliver and then maybe a parting shot in March?

I really hammered #2 in my write up...I feel like the coast may have some issues and elevation/latitude will do well in December. January is more of a regional orgy.

Literal writing, probably about...but the thought process and parsing through copious data made it considerably longer. I am obsessive about how I connect ideas and integrate information in order to convey it in precisely the manner that I intend...presentation with graphics and what not is important.

I'm a bit lower than you are....5-15".

My main question around December was how quickly the NAO would materialize and have staying power....my composite had more variability, which is reflected by some of the individual analog years, before staying more negative in January. But like I said, the NAO may fully cooperate sooner, which would be a bit better for December relative to the forecast. Getting the overall outlook generally correct is a tall enough task, but good luck with timing everything perfectly.

Not necessarily a grinch...its a decent analog, but can't be taken too literal.

I'm not sure you have an entirely accurate portrayal of what I am communicating. This is not at all a torch vs 1991-2020 climo. That said, there is a colder risk, as I said at the start of the thread. May be more of a timing issue because I def. have a very wintery January.

Well, my analog composite has a triple dose of 2020-2021, so.....

How about depriving the host of a courtesy flush, and just allow things to fester for a bit....that's how I roll-

That is what I meant when I said that I liked the pattern progression relative to climo.

Ninja.

Yea, but people come here for good analysis because we have great mets in these threads, and its hard to totally check the IMBY goggles at the door. I get it.

That is more like my version of the month.

Sign me up. I'd take that over Feb 2010.

I get why he is a bit more paranoid down in Jersey.

I think the goal posts are essentially my version of December, which punts the first week to 10 days of the month for SNE, and the more aggressive versions of yesterday and last night. I don't think that the month will go to shit.

I think the main deviation from what I had expected for the month of December when I issued my outlook a couple of weeks ago is that the neg NAO looks a bit more pronounced, which turns this: Into this: NO Note how the more pronounced high latitude blocking earlier in the season helps to relegate any semblance of a se ridge to the southern mid Atlantic, as compared to modest positive anomalies encroaching on the NE in the aforementioned guidance and seasonal forecast composite. While the month appears as though it may be trending a bit cooler due to what may transpire at higher latitudes, all is not lost if this does indeed revert back to a slightly tamer look. The month should not end up as mild as it could otherwise due to the tendency for Canada to remain cold, a la the 1973, 1975 and 2007 dataset mentioned on the seasonal forecast, which will ensure chances for wintery weather during the month across the north, despite the fact that it will not be a frigid month. The month will gradually turn colder as the high latitudes become more disturbed, and while the mid-Atlantic may find snowfall scare, New England should not...especially north and interior. However, coastal areas/lower terrain may have frequent precip type issues during coast storms due warm SSTs. Some elevation events are certainly possible. There will also be southwest flow events/warm air advection events, which will be more fruitful for the coast in terms of snow. A white Christmas is likely across the interior and northern New England, and possible along coastal southern New England. It is very unlikely for at least the lower terrain of the mid Atlantnic. While this is not your prototypical "big dog pattern", they are possible should a worthy wave become pinned beneath the NAO block, a la Jan 2011. Said system would be of the miller B variety and primarily impact from the 40th parallel on north. December Forecast H5 Composite: The real fireworks may come after the new year.

It only averaged +.01 for JM, so it was basically neutral....I'm sure we did.

The RNA is riskier where you are, so maybe that is feeding your anxst...but I wouldn't sweat if the neg NAO materializes.