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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    You will probably like December more than February. I just want a serviceable pattern in December and we have just that, as modeled. Anything early on is gravy.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Certainly the cold dumps west...that's why I mentioned 2018-2019. Its not December 1995, but nor is it Dec 2015.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had 26.7" in Dec 1967....even if you lop several inches off for CC, I would take it and sprint.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is my take on the Euro look....there is a big ridge just off of the west coast, so its more like a la nina look....you don't have the PAC firehose eradicating all of the cold from the CONUS like you do in those traditional "game over" el nino months of December. I think the interior especially would do okay.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    December should be the worst month...but I feel like we will catch some breaks. It probably won't be snowless during the entire solar nadir.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    And latitude.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same tactic Webber was employing last week....it washes out the western Pac warmth and evades the issue of the MEI/RONI that cannot be answered for.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Any residual thinly veiled semblance of optimism for a serviceable winter in the east.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Up and in.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    That December pattern reminds me of the 2018-2019 season...hopefully some better luck this December.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks like a gradient pattern for our area in December....issue will be is the gradient near Concord, NH, like last winter, or more bodily into SNE.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course, from my back yard points north is warm in both composites lol
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Worth it to me....getting out of the shower and stepping into a sonar of a bathroom is awful...takes forever to dry off.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not very....gonna focus on the next 5 months first lol
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Next year is another big la nina, so this may be my one shot to get the first good season since 2017-2018.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course, the warmest anomalies are on a fetch due NE of Methuen, MA.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Was he gnawing on last winter?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would be tedious because in reference to what Scott said, you have to find a way to control for synopitc patterns, as well.....no one worries about SST when you have a 1050 over Montreal.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could be some pratty gnarly CFs this season....CJs so aggressive they cause chaffing.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...it largely augments already mild patterns and caps radiational cooling. While it can impact very marginal situations, it doesn't play much of a role during many precipitation events. I do think the record warm Atlantic could play a factor this season to a degree, though.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you will really see that this year.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, those are my thoughts....around my area. I probably get closer to a foot than 7" of compacted slush.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Party @bluewave's ranch.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC probably cost me several inches last year...that is fair....especially in that early March-nipple event. What I have an issue with is people claiming a PV phased further west due to CC....while plausible, that is quite a leap that requires lifetimes worth of data to validate sufficiently.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I learned last season is to stop ignoring ENSO after I post the outlook. I am going to need to continue ENSO updates in season because I would have bailed on mid winter before the new year had I done that last season. It was clear it was shifting west and going modoki.
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