The focus in winter seasonal forecasting is on the pattern....H5 plots, etc. This is why I try to add in text narrative explicitly outlining how I expect the season to evolve, which includes snowfall, etc...that is the result.
Right. I'm sure there are plenty of years which featured a pronounced dearth of snow not comensurste with the degree of opportunity. This was my point about distinguishing between a rat pattern and rat results. Some were rat on both respects...this year on results. But I'm sorry, an extreme NAO block like that near the winter solstice is not a rat pattern. Find that in 2011 or 2001...or 2006.
Problem is that some fail to differentiate the pattern from the result....there is a spectrum of sorts. This year is merely a subpar pattern with a ratter result.
It's a good example of why I keep telling that snowman dude to stop cramming tweets of PV charts down people's throats....you don't need a complete evisceration of the arctic to see snow in New England.
I think everyone of us would sign on the dotted line to worm-hole our way out of this god forsaken cold season, at this point. There is no bigger meteorological purgatory than a cold season that won't produce.