40/70 Benchmark

Oh oh...more like la nina? I thought el Nino was taking off and coupling??!! Add Judah to Paul Roundy's naughty list

Yea, that weaker Aleutian low displaced to the west is a key feature of modoki.

That's consistent with phases 8 and 1 for November.

You might not want to look at the SAI this year. Yesterday, Judah said it looks really bad, bottom feeder and there’s only 5 days left to go. Larry Cosgrove said arctic sea ice is abysmal too Yea, I'm aware....not too worried.

@weatherwizTold you that you were too detailed lol Yea, this winter comes down to the arctic.

Damage looks cat 5 to me.

Modoki el Nino are more associated with -IOD, too.

This is true for New England. But different tables do yield different results because I have seen 1965, 1968 and 1977 listed as +IOD.

I have seen a lot of winter composites distinguishing between IOD and PDO phases....which can also be explained by the polar domain.

This jives with my understanding....but I believe that 1963, 1965, 1968 and 1977 were also +IOD...all good winters. Blocking is the difference. Most of the el Nino NE screw job seasons were also -IOD...that isn't as frequent in +IOD.

Its seems to be its generally tied to canonical el nino, and modoki are more often in tandem with -IOD.

Its not a frigid pattern, but I don't think anyone expects that.

In which case, the polar fields become crucial as to whether winter can be salvaged, as the dichotomous nature of those two seasons in terms of NE snowfall illustrates.

That to me screams "active" with the split flow....and while the polar domain doesn't look great, the PNA over top of the STJ in the split flow would ensure enough cold to keep folks engaged. Like.

I liked DT's presentation....one thing I have noticed about him is that he inconspicuously never ends up issuing that "final update", so that he isn't really on record with an actual forecast.

Yes. I agree with this....which also factors into my early November release window, following the SAI calculation.

I used 2018...its not a horrible analog largely due to the PAC. I feel like there are worse matches than 2009...not perfect, but it makes my cut...especially after factoring in CC.

I really respect that last paragraph....something few people realize is that the exploration of how the atmosphere can evolve differently from what one expects is probably as important, if not more so than the forecaster's anticipated evolution. I don't agree with all of it, but really appreciate the effort. Lots of Monday morning QBs in seasonal forecasting that never put a publication where their mouth is.

I don't think it would matter much...just nitpicking.

Others can feel free to chime in, but I feel like the bitching over outlook release dates is a loser's lament for 2 primary reasons... 1) Not sure there is much skill to be gained in issuing a 60-90 day forecast over a 90-120, regardless of the forecaster's elevation. 2) I feel like its incumbent on the forecaster to publish whenever they feel as though they have enough data to do so, which for me is after Halloween, when the SAI data is in...not a huge deal, but its one indicator I like to mention in the interest of being exhaustive. Bitching about others releasing later is akin to crying to the teacher that you weren't the last to hand your test in, after the fact. You are done when you say you're done. Obviously if you are a pro and have a deadline, that is different...but I still don't get the whining.

Pretty much Andrew right into a major city...yikes.

1992-1993 isn't an el Nino....well, I don't expect a frigid winter. But 1.2 is the ceiling for a jump..I playing it safely since I was going off of my exchange with snowman.

My guess is a SO MEI of 1.1

Obviously, no one expects the MEI to remain weak.....clearly it will jump sooner than later.