40/70 Benchmark

No. My early speculation last March was el nino, but I never wrote anything off. It was apparent in my ENSO blogs last summer that it would be la nina.

Its written off in my mind.

No. Once ENSO flips it will be fast and decisive IMO. But I would argue we actually saw it take over even earlier than it was observed...if you remember, even the el nino of 18-19' was more nina like.

Yea, I mean...I went big in January, too....but you have to be mindful of allowing a preconceived notion to sink you moving forward. You need to let go of the outlook and see what is happening. Right now, early January certainly doesn't look good, but I am going to give it another week before getting too nervous about January.

That is what I said...all three of these la ninas have had the same overall tenor. Thankfully, we are done with it after this year. Modoki el nino next season...book it.

He's has been very good the past few years IMO....second to none and its not close....but he seems like he is reaching here.

His egg nog is probably phasing with a few other choice beverages right about now.....nog capturing rum and just spinning right over the Benchmark.

Cosgrove insists on comparing this coming January to 1996...I was like, I get the timing of the thaw, but there has been no snow on the coast. He had kind of a smug response to the effect of "well, winter only begins in a few days and there are events on the ensembles, so don't cancel, ok?". I just dropped it, but I don't really know what he is talking about. There is nothing apparent in sight.

I had about 5" of glacial crust left at Xmas in Wilmington that year. I remember that light snow on XMAS eve 1993...my dad was dozing on the coach and I was watching it fall at like 2am haha.

Easier to pull off in an el nino, which those both were.

Primary over Montreal...Has to have a page in the KU book.

That cold will be in and outta here faster than Weatherwiz's prom date after having a good look at him

First thing that's gone right.

More climo wiggle room...12/16 probably would have been alot more snow a month later for many of us.

Agree.

Raunchy.

That's what I said on FB....people mocking me, since its going to be rain on the east coast, but a system of this magnitude will have a ripple effect.

Good.

The Feb blizzard was only 984mb at max depth...but like you said, with an obscenely high ambient pressure.

I remember I initially had reservations last week bc of the position of the ULL in se Canada on the ensemble means, but I allowed myself to by into some of the pretty OP head fakes.

Major, Long Duration Winter Storm Friday-Saturday Generally Forecast Well The forecast for the major winter storm at the conclusion of this past week and into the weekend was well forecast overall Below are reported snowfall totals from across the region. This was a very difficult forecast because the airmass was very marginal, and this it was highly elevation dependent, which is a point that was conveyed in the forecast. Note that while the forecast across northwestern half of the forecast verified very well, the southeastern edge of the snowfall, across the southern Worcester hills and the hills of north eastern Connecticut was overdone. The reason being that the airmass was just so marginal that iy was very difficult to discern what exactly would transpire. Not only does climatology dictate that more often than not the higher terrain of this area will see appreciable snowfall, but much of the forecast did, as well. However, clearly did not end up being the case in this area, as the 3-6" forecast verified as 1-3". Another area of difficulty was the lowest portion of the Connecticut river valley in Massachusetts, in was some areas such as Greenfield were forecast to receive 3-6" of snowfall and actually received under an inch. The rest of the forecast verified well, with areas such as Wilmington, VT, on the east slopes of the Green mountain range, accumulating over 2' of snowfall, as was expected in isolated area. Several locales in the higher terrain of the northern Berkshires received upwards of one foot and a half of snowfall. Final Grade: B+

Very difficult forecast for this past weekend's storm turned out pretty well, with the notable exception of the hills of northeastern CT, southern Worcester county (3-6" forecast probably should have been 1-3") and the lowest terrain of the CT river valley in Mass, where 3-6" was forecast and some areas received under an inch. However, the general 1-2 feet with isolated areas of over 2' verified well across the higher terrain to the north and west. The hills of northern Worcester county and northwestern CT also worked out. B+ effort. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../major-long...

Yea, I can do without power disruptions 3 days before Xmas.

The closest to normal that I have been since 2017-2018 is 51", which is still at least 10" below normal. The only thing I can say for this period is that I have avoided a true, epic ratter, since I got that big event in December of 2019 that some of the area had precip type issues in....so while I haven't had a brutally awful season, its been death by a thousand paper cuts because they have all been subpar and frustrating. Its bee four consecutive years between about 44 and 51"...rinse, repeat Groundhog day.

I hope the winds fails tragically, as it usually does. I have no use for power disruptions or property damage.