40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yep....go with the NAM. Sell much accumulation even for my area.
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You are lumping in all strong el nino events, which is unwise. Not much difference between 1.5 ONI and 1.7. All of those el nino events were between 1.2 and 1.8ONI. This isn't going to be a 2015 or 1997 intensity el nino.
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So, I'm not sure where you get 30" for next year, but its moot, at this point.
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That is true in the absolute sense of a literal jackpot, but its rare for one spot that usually does well to continue to get boned. I don't expect that overall sentiment to resonate with you because you are a meteorological mercenary that travels at the drop of a hat.
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What did you get in 86-87, 02-03 and 57-58?
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Wow.....EPS is pretty snowy.
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I didn't do a blog for that one, but my Facebook thoughts were a general 2-4" out to 495 and 1-3" points west, which worked out pretty well.
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I don't see depth change for GEM....I think this is too aggressive.
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Maybe not from the whole ordeal, combined. Either way, more suck.
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Maybe that is what Kev is referring to then. I haven't looked at that yet. The way things are going, the snow with the main slug will end up just north of me.
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One thing I feel good about is not having one of those obnoxious seasons that suck, and then produce a perfect winter blocking pattern in April and May. I feel like the timing of any strat assist will manifest in March, and the band aid will be ripped in time for spring.
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Be sure to post pics.
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I agree if you are looking for warning events, but I feel like I have a good shot at topping my "largest" event of the year (2.5").
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Yea, tossed.
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If it works out, great....but my breath honestly isn't held, at this point. I'm prepared for just a ratter.
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Gotcha, bud. Fact of the matter is that many feel the same way, but just aren't as transparent.
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Why is it warmer? Is it phasing something other guidance doesn't, or is it just more aggressive with the warm tongue? I tend do doubt the latter because that is normally the NAM's specialty....and if its the former, then I am inclined to discount it.
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Same here. It will actually be refreshing to have 3" when the majority of SNE gets zilch, as opposed to the repeat of cycle of 5" here and 13" from Steve to Scooter.
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I think you have the right idea....only caveat is a potential SSW (I know) impact for March. I know those roll eyes at the speed of light, but they do actually produce from time to time and there are many spots virtually snowlelss that probably won't end up that way...just saying. Don't count out a March 2001/2018 type ending.
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Lo and behold....
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I feel like your "too early for amounts" statement is really just some cookie-cutter, general rhetoric in attempt to mask the fact that you haven't really looked into it much. Sorry, but a 2-5" range for a SWFE N of the pike is a pretty reasonable place to start, dude.
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Yep. Agreed. Good point about the max depth change map....never used it.
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It's a chatter on a forum...not a forecast.
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Kuchie is sometimes better for a deformation zone...not a situation in which thermals are an issue. That is the NARCAN specialty.
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Those 10:1 clowns are awful in SWFE...need the NARCAN
