40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Stunner....just floored. -
Location of the greatest SST anomalies in the crudest sense..you can also look at OLR and VP. I have plenty on that in my outlooks. But I don't mean to imply that there aren't exceptions...obviously nothing operates in a vacuum and there are other hemispheric drivers to consider, but ENSO structure is a key player assuming decent intensity. The position isn't as important for very weak events because obviously the forcing is weaker, thus the relationship is more diffuse.
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It's not a crap shoot....especially once they have some intensity. It determines where the forcing sets up to a large extent.
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Man, I am as sick of this thread as I am la nina.
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89-90 would fit right in with my current strings of winter....lame and unremarkable, but not awful.
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Enjoy, Don.
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No....probably moderate or strong (not super).
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No way. That was east-based. Pretty confident it will be west-based.
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It will cause me to feel every bit as indifferent about them as always.
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Messy cruiser?
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Makes sense....have a last second miracle trend so that its close enough for me to make out the fingerprint of old man winter as he flips me the byrd.
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Well, its done a pretty good job predicting my future for nearly 5 years.
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I'd kill for one right now, which is saying something...
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Good point.
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There is a reason that January averages more snowfall than December. I agree that the cold looks to continue loading to the west...no shock, there.
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I didn't imply that it was frigid, but the point is that somewhat above average at our latitude during peak climo is not necessarily a deal breaker, as you implied it was.
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I never said that....you know yourself that a weak el nino is out money ENSO phase. I was speaking more on a personal level because the last several years have been fine for most of SNE TBH...especially your area. But I am not "out" on this season. I still think that there will be to hell to pay at some point in January.
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I've seen much more intimidating "torches"...
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I don't think many can argue that from the vantage point of MBY, it would be good to shake things up. Its been several seasons of managing to miss out, whether it be in a mesoscale sense, or more synoptically speaking. Its really not up for debate at this point.
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I disagree. I would still rather take my chances with el nino....one of those two seasons was hardly an el nino, and the other one was more like a la nina. I personally feel that this cold, la nina like Pacific feel has been going on longer than the recent stretch of la nina seasons...which makes sense give that were in the -PDO portion of the multidecadal cycle.
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This is starting to feel like the Red Sox Facebook alert articles notifying you every 5 minutes of the key FAs that they are "in on"....
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Yea, late 90's probably a better comparison for me, too...more similar to the current stretch in that while there were no true ratters, it was still several more moderately shitty years in a row.
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This period is comparable to the late 80s/early 90s for me in the sense that I have had 4 consecutive subpar seasons..a fifth this year would beat it. However, 88-92 was worse from a snow/season perspective, since it had 3 ratters with under 30". I have managed to avoid that this time. Just moderately below average seasons strung together.
