40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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He had a +NAO December, so there is that...glad that I didn't copy him, like he accused me of. Otherwise, he has had the right idea....we were both RNA December.
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You can't get that specific...no one does. That is fluky shit ORH through my area has been porked. But I have generally had the pattern right, which is all I hope for.
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Of course there is more to it....the crap like the ridge being displaced to the west is luck. I didn't predict that. But its not luck that the cold has been out west and the interior has done better.
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That the coast has been totally shut out, yes. At the end of the day, there is always some hedging and glorified guess work at play with issuing these outlooks. Even if you get the pattern right, there is always some educated guess work about how it all plays out.
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Because RNA increases the changes of an interior pattern, even though the upside is high if things break right. This month they haven't.
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On average, one of our better patterns is -NAO/RNA, but I think the PV sliding out west as porked us. I don't think that that would have happened in a positive PNA month...or less likely, anyway.
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We are still only like 55% through the month, too...don't forget that. We have just seen how quickly things change.
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What I mean is that this has been RNA, but not record levels like last year...I expected some front end/SWFE type stuff despite the RNA, but it hasn't worked out for the coast and some spots just inland. But a PNA would have allowed the cold to dump further east. Is that really that complicated?
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If January is miserable, then I'll be the first to burn my outlook....but so far, I think its going as planned. And even is January fails, I don't think this season ends quietly...
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I disagree. This month would have been better with PNA.
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The ridge being too far west was a nuance that nobody could have predicted. Agreed. But the cold constantly loading west is not...that is what I called for due to RNA.
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You and I both know that the goal of long range and seasonal forecasting is to capture the general idea...little screw areas like that not withstanding. I think I have done that, so far. 'Cmon...
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Gotta love the degreed Monday AM QBs in marketing...you expect it from hobbyists.
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Small sliver between w MA/CT and NNE. I never thought you would go troll...wow.
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COASTAL SNE....maybe. Wow, you have declined since you stopped forecasting. Palpable.
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I said specifically NNE, interior and elevations favored. The rest of the interior just had a few inches before that. No wonder why less and less people put forth any type of large scale effort to produce seasonal stuff on this site. People don't get the weather binky that they want, and they shit on everything. When I blow it, I say so...this month has gone according to plan.
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We are just beyond midway through, and the Berkshires just has 12-18"....not sure what you want. TBH, if this had worked out, the month would be pretty epic out there.
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I think interior NE has done pretty damn well this month.
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Not specific numbers, no. Just seasonal. I do everything else for each month and describe what I expect to happen in narrative form.
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They are pretty comparable mainly bc March runs up against tough climo in the second half of the month. But I would rather take my chances on a big fish in March...just my opinion, but I think historic stats would confirm. -
Yup. RNA is the reason that I didn't go big this month. But if it ends up as awful as last December, then that is bad luck. I agree that I didn't expect it to be that bad snowfallwise near the coast.
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That would be key if I lived there.
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It's a couple where I am. Snowier noise. The sun angle and retention crap is irrelevent. I agree that makes snow better in December, but fact is that it isn't a better snowfall month, unfortunately.
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In the medium range, no, but my monthly call in the aggregate is pretty spot on to this point. I called for a neg NAO with most of the snow inland.
