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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    The west Pacific warm pool is the result of Chris urinating in the collective cheerios of winter weenies for about the past decade lol
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    December is going to feature a positive NAO in the mean....just accept that....especially if we see a substantial warming of the polar stratosphere and accompanying weakening of the PV, as the circumstances that trigger that often produce a warmer outcome and unfavorable patterns for winter enthusiasts in the short term. The desired impact is delayed often up to about 30 days while the stratospheric warming ideally propagates downward to the troposphere where it directly alters our weather.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris is a bright guy, but don't let him catch you smiling, or else he will point out a multi decadal trend away from whatever made you smile.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get the risk with the PDO....I was just explaining what a traditional Modoki configuration looks like.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weak el Nino/Modoki Hadley Cell Configuration
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Watch how whomever is ultimately wrong reacts...any equivocation or moving of the goals posts should be followed by a credibility drain.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nope, the pre satelite era biases the MEI towards Modoki....see, this is why all of the most powerful MEI values were obtained in east-based, canonical events.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    This. We will know shortly which ENSO ideology is correct.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could be the best holiday period pattern since 2009 and 2010.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Watch for a big holiday period event focused over interior...my analogs scream it. Should be first major of the season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks very similar to my December mean composite, but it should get mitigated by the cooler start and finish.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes because that Hadley Cell configuration would pop a big Aleutian low due north of that warmest water just east of the dateline, which would pop a ridge near the west coast (also ridging near the pole). This is why folks keep wating for el Nino to couple more and "battle" the -PDO and why I expect the PNA to average somewhat positive this season, regardless.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I get that...I went over both aspects ad nauseam in my work. However, its folly to ignore the the fact that the atmospheric response is different from past higher-end events.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great met, but loves him some warm. His outlook was reasonable, though....pretty similar to mine.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.....2015 is a decent EMI match, but as you implied, the SST dipole and pressure dipoli were much more pronounced in in 2015....WWBs were much more prevalent, as well...which is which is reflected by the MEI and RONI.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just east of the dateline is textbook Modoki....you don't want it west of the dateline because then you get more Maritime influence....look at 2006: This in conjunction with descending solar is why that season sucked bum-bum.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not, which is part of the reason why no one is calling for a cold winter.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm convinced Webber and those folks will never, ever admit they were wrong....DC could end up with 60" and they will argue that it was a classic canonical el Nino because the season was +1 and most of the snow fell in 1 or two events.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, this is me being asinine:
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just east of the dateline is not where the strongest el Nino events focus. BS.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Possible, but I doubt it.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree since the model consensus has been for a OND ONI peak since like last spring.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hope not.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think everyone understands that an identical pattern wouldn't be as cold....however, an identical pattern also would probably produce larger storms with more moisture.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do buy this potentially having something to so with CC.....also plays into why the more "feast of famine" dynamic in terms of snowfall.....tougher to get great NAO blocks, but when we get them, some of these storms are just savage.
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