40/70 Benchmark

I'm an idiot. Disregard.

UGH...my bad.

Mainly Rain Likely Thursday Into Early Friday Some Snow Possible Across Northern Sections While there continues to be some signs of change in a season that seemingly manufactures ways to resist snow and cold throughout the forecast area, the next system poised to impact the area late this week does not appear destined to be any different. The Synoptic Situation: Once concept that has not been at all foreign to the 2022-2023 winter season has been deep, closed 500mb lows across the western US and midwest, which in conjunction with the notable lack of antecedent cold air, has been the reason for relative dearth of snowfall across the area. This week does not appear to be any different in that regard. On Thursday morning yet another deep H5 low is forecast to be barreling to the northwest, through the midwest and towards the Great Lakes. However, as potentially a sign of the changes that are underway across the hemisphere, the system encounters an increasing amount of resistance with latitude by way of confluence stationed over southern Canada. This forces the energy to weaken and sheer of to the east, which mitigates the degree of warming that would have otherwise taken place across the northeast. This results in the core of the mid level energy sliding on an ESE trajectory through New York state and across southern New Hampshire. It is along and just to the north of this track where the heaviest snowfall totals will be observed, as warm air advection will maximize lift to enhance precipitation without the precipitation actually transitioning to sleet and rainfall. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation should break out as mainly rain, with potentially a mix of snow at the onset in hills of NW Connecticut around the time of the Thursday AM commute before a change to rain. Rain then overspreads the remainder of the region by Thursday afternoon, with snow possible in the Berkshires. There is a chance that precipitation may transition to a period snowfall Thursday evening to the north of the Mass pike, and especially near the NH/VT borders, as evaporative cooling takes place. Before tapering off early Friday morning. It may be wise to plan for extra time during the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes to the north of the Mass pike, as a precaution, but amounts should be light overall. First Call: Final Call will be issued on Wednesday-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/mainly-rain-likely-thursday-into-early.html

Well, it depends on perspective....obviously 2001 was worse form a winter pattern standpoint.

I adore the set up day 50.

Tenor of the season, too.

But it nailed the pre XMAS eve disaster....of course.

Its just the NAM that's really warm, then.

Yea, assuming the model was right, then there would be more snowfall further south.

Too warm in the low levels.

I was waaay too cocky about March back in 2018 and truth be told, I was just lucky that it actually worked out. It wasn't any stroke of genius. The rationale and work was valid, but I exuded far more confidence than was warranted. I learned not to do that really fast during the next two seasons, after falling flat on my face. All I will say here is that there is a path to redemption for this season, increasing March sun angle butt-hurt not withstanding.

You know where I stand on next year...no secret, there.

I mean, my forecast charts imply a big March...but don't get me wrong....I can see it going either way. I totally get how precarious the strat stuff is and this season could easily be another 2001-2002. I don't mean to impugn the efforts of those who dissent to the big March idea....totally possible.

Its 2001-2002...until its not-

I mentioned that analog to you back a few weeks ago....it was one of my top analogs and December evolved very similarly. January has been much different, admittedly. See, I don't think a 40" month is that big of a stretch. People like to toss around CC....one consequence of that that I think has been very apparent is the increasing tendency for the atmosphere to enter into really dichotomous "feast or famine" type of time intervals as it pertains to snowfall. You deal that PV a death blow....let that marinade for a month until the wave lengths begin shortening and it gets interesting really fast.

I think its totally possible....other than that, this is 2001-2002-lite.

Well....say 9" in early February with a 45" March....54" is not a rat. Its a continuation of my last several uninspiring seasons. Say we run into a another 6" of fluke in Febuary.....near normal-

I agree with the strat caveat applied.....if we have a February 2018 redux ongoing at the highest levels, then I still won't commit to a rat.

Denying CC is one thing, but attributing it to every subpar season is another entirely.

No, I'm with you....its no one's error or fault. Just saying. I am still on the "happy ending" train, but totally get the pessimism.

Tough to stay optimistic....we've been internet dating for 2 months and are left with a closet full of day 11 blow up dolls.

Yes.

EURO is similar to 06z NAM, which was fine....but my money is on the 12z NAM warmer sceanrio. Crap antecedent.....850 low dropping se from NYS through SNH. Yuck.

NAM and EURO are lock-in-step in taking the decaying H85 low through s NH....not a good way to run a snow event for SNE.