40/70 Benchmark

I am going to keep abreast with the tropics more than I have in previous seasons, as that is why I missed the mild mid winter stretch last season......I don't see any deviation from the forecast as of yet....el Nino maybe peaking on the high end of my 1.7 to 1.9 range, but that is NBD.

My thoughts on the month was always serviceable and backloaded.....and you take that an bolt in a strong el Nino. The hand wringing in November is beyond me.

You have to remove the emotion and view each season in a vacuum....you can't look at it through last season's lens or this is what you get.

Its several years of cool ENSO PTSD....having the MJO in the maritime continent is triggering, especially in light of having those huge NAO blocks last season not bare any fruit for the coastal plane.

I am I would advise everyone to set expectations for around Christmas and beyond....while past mid month may be fair game, the greater likelihood is a bit later than that IMHO...best not to set up for disappointment.

Yes, I know....not concerned at all. I would much rather this than a canonical el Nino look....as it means the forcing is still west. During a warm ENSO, you would rather be trying to move the forcing east than west....much more achievable correction vector. Its like when folks are comforted by the GFS being offshore, rather than inland in a synoptic sense. But 'alas, its going to trigger some cold ENSO PTSD from the snow spazoids.

I was hesitant to buy into some of those really favorable early month looks and figured that it would back step, but the issue is that now the people like Snowski that latched onto it like a Pitbull are going to be relentless.

I agree....not quite 1978, but it was close.

.42" total RF....underperformer.

December 12 is still too early IMO...if there is nothing imminent by Christmas, then that maybe a bit eye opening.

Same page.

It was always clear to me, but hopefully this puts to rest for some other folks the idea of Tonga pulling a Pinatubo.

I think 2014 is a decent match to this past fall, too. 1965, 1968 and 1987 look best moving forward.

Do The Boys realize that you don't get high draft picks for tanking in the Post season? I mean, they may as well start winning SBs again.

I flipped around 1AM in Wilmington

Okay, my bad. Thanks.

It didn't last more than 1 day?

It lasted a few days....wasn't a one day affair.

Man, I really do have a low key obsession with 12/14/1992....and this isn't me taking a passive aggressive jab at Scooter, either. I know that a lot of us get it, but I will always feel like it's perhaps the most under appreciated major east coast storm. I think even on this forum there are a lot of folks who don't really appreciate the magnitude of that system on a multitude of levels. ...I mean, you had coastal devastation that rivaled Sandy, The Perfect Storm and the Blizzard of '78....yet over 40" of snow in the Berkshires fueled by some of the most anomalous deep layer easterly fetch that will ever be observed. I think only 4/1/'97 may have matched it in that respect. Then aside from that, its romanticized to a degree in my mind as being the first major snow event as we emerged form the barren snowfall climo of my youth in the wee hours of that fateful morning. Lets do that this month.

Fine with me...I was saying I felt like this overtrended and would adjust back some. Makes sense.

Expecting the residual cool ENSO atmospheric momentum to manifest as another very la Nina like pattern with a big se ridge is every bit as reductive as viewing the ONI and the SST distribution earlier this fall and expecting a super, canonical el Nino response this winter.

Yea, I don't necessarily mean that winter will evolve exactly like it, but rather that solar, extra tropical Pacific, ENSO and the polar domain are all decent matches. We know how analogs work....2009 is a great analog, but I don't expect 75" in DC.

Those who ready my work this month will know what I am saying....its the several year stretch of cool ENSO prevalence working in tandem with a warming climate that has reduced the strength of the Pacific dipole that fosters the development of el Nino and displaced the forcing west of what would normally be expected given the course or development of this event. This is what has lead to the dysfunctional warm ENSO paradigm that is evidenced by the huge spread between ONI and RONI/MEI.

It's not nonsense. The application of it is.

He is referring to the residual la Nina atmospheric momentum, which does exist, but I disagree with him about how it will manifest.....its keeping el Nino in check.