40/70 Benchmark

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/december-largely-evolves-as-forecast.html

It may mean that I am too warm in February....the big storm bombarding the block, which hastened the onset of the thaw, and the potential weakening of la nina may have my February call in some peril. We'll see...but this earlier thaw actually aligns better with my 1/6-1/20 storm window.

Yea, I've never expected a bitter cold month.

Definite room for improvement with respect to seasonal forecasts. I agree that there is a bit more of a wall regarding shorter term.

You are probably right with respect to shorter term...I am speaking more of seasonal.

100%....I am better than CPC at seasonal forecasting, and its not close. Its not meant to sound arrogant. Its a testament to how haphazard their effort is. I think there is far too large of a percentage of the industry that is resigned to inferiority with respect to seasonal forecasting....some of which is likely due to an aversion to the volume of work that it will take to improve. Thank god the healthcare industry doesn't have this mindset....people would still be dying from polio, never mind making strides towards a cure for cancer.

I would argue that if you aren't doing the latter, then perhaps you're in the wrong field. But I agree about the danger of what you think you know....been learning that the hard way past several years of seasonals. There are ways to try to compensate for what is lacking with respect to analogs...one thing I have begun doing is focusing more on what the weather has actually been doing as we progress through summer and into the fall. I think the unknown part is fun. I wish I was as skilled at math as you and the other mets are....I just couldn't hack that part....not close.

Clearly there are limitations, yes....but I don't think its fair to deprive anyone of credit when it works. When it doesn't, just own up and explain what went wrong. Its only by doing this that skill will get any better at longer ranges.

...or you can sit idly and pass judgement on those who do endeavor a seasonal effort, while refusing to accept any accountability for terrible medium range forecasts.

I was plenty specific enough: January 2023 Outlook January Analogs:1971, 1976, 1985, 1986,1996 2011, 2014, 2021, 2022 January is like to be consistent with climatology in that it will be the most consistently fierce month in that there is likely to be "storms and rumor of storms", to quote an old and wise weather weenie. It was mentioned that opportunities for a coupling of EPO/PNA style blocking with NAO blocking would be scarce this season, but if it is to occur, it will be this month, as evidenced by the January 2023 forecast H5 composite: The recovery of the PNA from the RNA month of December is also evident in the ECMWF forecast: Note the opportunity for cross polar flow and what will at times be frigid conditions. This will also be a month of great flux, which will likely couple with well above average N hemispheric SSTs and a surplus of water vapor owed to the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga last January help to facilitate a large scale and perhaps generation storm opportunity. This event will be the signature storm of the season, and will have the potential to cripple travel over a widespread area for a time in a window between approximately January 6th-20th This is the month that the mid Atlantic likely receives the bulk of its seasonal snowfall. January will be the inverse of December in that it will be biased more wintery earlier, but blocking should relinquish its grip and it should modify with flooding threats possible during a major thaw. January 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: January 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composites, but also even during the season in general given the unique circumstances surrounding Hunga Tonga.

Yes, but there are some trolls amongst us...not you. That is just a nusiance. It goes both ways...the guys like George take a lot of shit, too...

Yea, my back yard.

Not what I said....but if you don't think that some of that argument is born of trolling, then you are delusional. They are as much a part of the problem as the cold antagonists.

Its nothing personal...just like nails on a chalkboard.

Much safer and more responsible way to articulate things than I just did...agreed lol

Truth be told, its ill-advised for me to word anything that strongly at this juncture, but this is a hobby for me and I feel like I have supported all of my postulations with ample research. So fu&* it- Going out on a large limb here and subject myself to the scorn of trolls if things don't break right....anyway, I feel like if January doesn't pan out, then this season's work is an abject failure for me, regardless.

One thing is certain, I'm tired of watching the battle between the Anal Avengers and Cosmic Dildos at the Methuen AMC. Damn movie is half a decade...

There is going to be hell to pay this month, and while it may not be paid in (insert weenie)'s backyard, someone will pay it.

I feel like many folks are generalizing this season due to ENSO and are underestimating the potential that it has to do a complete 180. This is absolutely explosive potential....and I don't toss those words around like George. It probably won't be entirely realized, but nonetheless...

11 likes lol Anyone tired of la nina?

Both IMO, but greater confidence in PNA. I feel like the one mistake that I may have made is not emphasizing the rapid decay of la nina enough with respect to February, but we'll see....the friendly Pacific in January was a no-brainer...and I have a big March, but February maybe somewhat better than advertised given the apparent decay of la nina. This season is a looooong way from over.

One thing that was clear to me dating back to last fall was that the Pacific would behave in January. This is our big dog window in a about a bit over a week to like the 20th.

Yea, I have mentioned....I was commuting out to Devens getting ready to deploy with marines, and it was like 18" of powder there, compared to about a foot of cement in Wilmington. I'd rather that, than a foot of powder to 18" a the coast.

TBH, I would rather take my chances with a meh airmass in January then arctic air....I am just so done with CJ steam lines and subby slivers. Not to mentioned that I'd take a foot of paste over 18" of dust.

I know...just busting 'em.