40/70 Benchmark

Yes, but March is in fact snowier.

Sorry, I know the "scorched earth" policy that is invoked out of anger from a pattern gone wrong causes everyone to cry about all of the forecasts being shit, but I am happy about this just a bit beyond the halfway point of the month. The risks and the fact that it would not be an epic month for our area was well outlined. Balance of November-December 2022 Outlook December Analogs: 1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1984,1992, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2016 The ongoing transition to a colder pattern after a very mild start to the month is due to a progression of the MJO passage into phase 8. MJO Phase 8 November However, forcing, denoted in the graphic below by upward ascent within the encircled region, has been prevalent at around 120E longitude due to baseline cool ENSO forcing. Forcing in this position is redolent of the milder modoki la nina composite: But, passage of the MJO wave through phase 8 means that it is deconstructively interfering with said baseline la nina forcing, more redolent of east-based la nina forcing. East-Based La Nina Forcing However, it is forecast to begin once again constructively interfering around phase 5 later this month and into early December. This a very mild pattern for the northeast that is generally consistent with the previously referenced baseline forcing. Thus the month of November should again end fairly mild and December begin in like fashion. However, there are signs noted by Dr. Judah Cohen that both the Snow Advance Index SAI and the development of Ural-Scandinavian ridging may aid in future polar vortex disruption over the course of the month of December, which would be consistent with the forecast expectation of some blocking to materialize early in the season. However, an official Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is unlikely given unimpressive SAI and SSWs being relatively rare during the RNA style extra tropical Pacific regime expected this season Regardless, the month should not end up as mild as it could otherwise due to the tendency for Canada to remain cold, a la the aforementioned 1973, 1975 and 2007 dataset, which will ensure chances for wintery weather during the month across the north, despite the fact that it will not be a frigid month. The month will gradually turn colder as the high latitudes become more disturbed, and while the mid Atlantic may find snowfall scarce, New England should not...especially north and interior. However, coastal areas/lower terrain may have frequent precip type issues during coastal storms due warm SSTs. Some elevation events are certainly possible. There will also be southwest flow events/warm air advection events, which will be more fruitful for the coast in terms of snow. A white Christmas is likely across the interior and northern New England, and possible along coastal southern New England. It is very unlikely for at least the lower terrain of the mid Atlatnic. December Forecast H5 Composite: December 2022 Forecast Temps: 1951-2010: 1991-2020:

No. Delmarva and up along I95

I said last month that it would show up at times, but it won't be a staple of the season.

Agree.

It's so frustrating how brutal December has been. Kev is right that snowfall is more enjoyable this month for a variety of reasons, but unfortunately it's just not a snowy month where we live. March is better.

How difficult is it to realize that an analog from the 1960's will not yield as cold of a result at the surface? Its not rocket science and it's pretty easy to account for. I use them liberally and have had 2 awful seasonal calls in 8 years. That is at least as good?as any other method.

6 hourly method is total storm snowfall. Just distinguish between snowstorm snowfall and depth. Problem solved. It's totally normal to have a 27" depth after a 30" snowfall. Your storm total snowfall is 30" with a 27" depth.

Drastically different ass.

I would be pretty suprised if the first week of January is warm, regardless of what guidance is currently doing.

Who said post 12/28 thaw?

I was just messing. I still see at least SWFE potential

Next winter

Twilight zone NY marathon on Syfy every year for me

Yes, I'm not disputing anthropogenic climate change. The damn ridge was too far west.

It's not climate change...enough with that toxic vomit. Sometimes things don't work out in a good pattern.

See ya at 00z.

I quietly still have some hope, but it's not worth discussing. Just wait and see. SWFE is still an option IMO.

Fair enough. We'll see.

I never liked the look of the ULL in se Canada, but I tricked myself into getting excited.

I had one of the more benign December depictions around TBH.

What was your original plan, again?

I never thought the medium range would fail this spectacularly, though...not trying to imply that.

I would be suprised, but could I be wrong? Of course...and I'll be wrong again. But I am relatively confident that that will not be the case. That said, expect a very mild period during January...I am also confident of that. It should be a very dynamic month with drastic changes. .