40/70 Benchmark

You know if the consensus had been for a deform band from here to ORH, then it would nail this westward correction.

Tragic.

Who cares, same thing.

I think that was the original cranberry bog storm, where you made that graphic lol I remember that I got like 5" of sand and flipped.

Yea, I won't invest in this until I'm shoveling.

I have that on ignore.

Nothing at my place, then about 1/2" once I hit the Dascomb Rd exit inside of 495.

No one is biting on the latest head fake.

God, this place is a special kind of insufferable when it won't snow.

Problem isn't the PNA, it's the EPO.

Why do you keep responding to all of if? I'm not sure which is worse...

I'd take EPS

Yea, that is the date I came up with.

Close, but the atmosphere dialed 2001 instead of 2010.

It maybe in a relative sense given that the pattern at least looks cold moving forward.

I still think we see a reemergence of high latitude blocking....my guess is later Feb and/or March. Until then, its pacific driven.

He could have easily been right. I was just breaking his balls in retaliation. Its just an example of how special seasons like 2010 are.

Yea, that is the vibe I was trying to send off, too...not worried at all about suppression, but precip type will continue to be a pressing issue IMO. Difference being that we should ultimately have cold air to work with, so it won't be a non-starter.

No doubt.

I didn't say everything is going to plan at all. Funny being mocked for issuing updates from the guy who disappeared after his train derailed.

Active Pacific Jet Finally Poised to Subside Later in January More Wintery Pattern Delayed But Not Denied Thus far the month of January has not evolved as anticipated. Although the RNA that was so prevalent throughout the month of December has in fact abated as forecast due to more el nino like tropical forcing, it has been very mild with a notable dearth of snowfall across much of the northeast, regardless. This has been primarily due to a stronger than anticipated Pacific jet stream, which has eradicated the cold air supply across much of the continent. While this was expected to be a recurrent theme over the course of winter 2022-2023, it was not at all expected to be so prominent throughout the month of January and has led to a very mild first half of the month. However, there are signs that the active Pacific jet will relax over the course of the final third of the month. Mid Month Pattern Changes to Ensue There is a growing consensus among ling range ensemble guidance that the very active Pacific jet will finally begin to relax and allow the supply of cold air to be replenished, as a ridge develops in the vicinity of the west coast and aids in the delivery of said cold to the eastern US. The relaxation of the mild Pacific jet is also apparent in the ensemble forecast of the EPO index, with a notable descent evident in both the European: And GFS ensemble suites: This period also denotes the onset of the window of opportunity for significant winter storms across the region, which at least initially, look to be primarily Pacific driven. Neutral Signal from Tropics and Polar Domain While a there is likely to be a reoccurrence of the early season episode of high latitude blocking, at least to some degree, later this season, it is unlikely to occur during the month of January. Tropical forcing appears to remain relatively weak, as noted with respect to the low amplitude MJO wave passing out of phase 8 and through phases 1 and 2: And continued decay of the wave of el nino like regime that has been situated closer to the dateline during the majority of first half of the month of January. What his likely entails is a continuation of the current + PNA regime, as evidenced by the aforementioned west coast ridging apparent on long range guidance, with a possible stagnation towards the end of January, and essentially an inconsequential signal from the high latitudes. Given the lack of major high latitude blocking in conjunction with a progression towards modest MJO phase 2 wave progression, an inland track of low pressure areas, in addition to inherent coastal precipitation type issues, continues to be a risk factor moving forward. However, even in the absence of any major high latitude blocking at least through the duration of January, there does appear to be a tendency for the polar vortex to become more elongated towards the western Hemisphere. This may act to redistribute more of the global supply of cold back closer to home as January continues to age.

Well, I blew January....expected a +EPO winter, but I did not expect the PAC jet to own the month of January like it has. Still feel this winter will recovery....not be epic, but recover. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/active-pacific-jet-finally-poised-to.html

I think there a few on this site who really do.

I average about 63" per season....and am going to head into latter January with my largest event on the season being 1.5". Let that sink in...

Yes.