40/70 Benchmark

I'm ready for el nino, too. Its not overrated when you are going on a fifth consecutive season of suck. Deck needs shuffling from my perspective.

But the CMC nailed the non blizzard, though...we knew that would happen because it entailed all of us bending over and grabbing our collective ankles.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/mild-rainy-friday-before-slight-storm.html

Mild & Rainy Friday Before Slight Storm Threat Just after Christmas No White Christmas for Most of Southern New England But Travel Delays Still Expected It has become clear over the past several days that the worst nightmare for travelers across the northeast will not be realized, as the severe winter storm that has been expected to develop for quite come time now looks to track too far to the west for significant snowfall across the region. This is due to the fact that not only is the PNA ridge displaced to the west, just off the west coast as opposed to over the Rocky mountains, but the polar vortex became stationed over western Canada, as opposed to becoming lodged just underneath the block closer to James Bay in Canada. This allows the storm system to dig far enough to the west that it initially gains enough latitude to drive enough warm air into the region to ensure a mainly rain event, before becoming lodged underneath the block. However, while this does mean that the east coast will not be dealing with a blizzard in the days leading up to Christmas, there will still be very adverse weather conditions across many portions of the country. Thus the most prudent course of action would still be to preferably fly out today and no later tomorrow in order to avoid potential delays. Looking Ahead As we peer beyond Christmas and into the holiday week, there is a slight chance for a winter storm along about Tuesday, however, a phase of the two parcels of energy remains exceedingly unlikely given the more progressive nature of the flow in the wake of the major pre-Christmas storm system. The European suite was the most ominous with a near miss: The Canadian ensemble less emphatic: And the GFS remains very benign with the two streams very far apart in a very progressive flow:

Absolutely perfect...if its not snow or a major hurricane, let me sleep.

Yea, I can see panicking about early January...that is reasonable.

Frustrating start not withstanding, I do not see a reason to cancel winter. People are scared to death of 1989-1990 scenario, in which blocking never returned...okay, so worst case I finish just below average again like I have the past four seasons. Still not a rat.

Even with a strong PV, I do not buy that the pig is going to camp out over AK long term...maybe blocking doesn't return in January, but that doesn't mean SNE is cooked. TBH, I have been saying all December just give me a very cold Canada, and run a train of SWs into it...I will take my chances with that IMBY. Blocking is likely to return...maybe its later than January...

Does a well coupled la nina necessarily mean a ratter en route? No. TBH, I have taken a break from long range stuff after some of the frustrating head fakes of late. I'll look again probably next week, but I am confident from everything I looked at preseason that this won't be a dud...at least not for New England. Maybe I'll need to revisit that in a couple of weeks, but cross that bridge.... Anyway, all of my stuff is judged as is....sure, I may revise my thoughts in season, but I don't touch that thesis from November....that is graded as is.

At least for out area, anyway...

I expected that more the second week of the month, so again...timing could def. be off.

I am about as confident as I will ever be with respect to anything that we will have a very mild stretch this month (January)....probably milder than Jan 2015...maybe more like 2005. But I will also go down with the ship regarding January offering some great volatility and downright wild potential. Perhaps my timing is off and it gets pushed to February, and I mix the months up, similar to what I did in 2021....this season isn't a ratter, though.

I think the initial post of this thread just about exactly one month ago captured it pretty well....hopefully things work out next month. I am surprised that the coast couldn't even muster one noteworthy snowfall from a SWFE...I didn't think it would be that shitty, but that is some bad luck mixed in. The mean H5 pattern certainly doesn't scream "virtually snowless in Boston".

Ah, the good 'ole days....back when it snowed in December and my area wasn't always dinning on scraps.

One jackpot I will be happy to concede is a grid-threatening, warm wind event the day before Xmas eve.

My hopes aren't up, but there is nothing else to even feign interest in, so...

I'll take the under for my area.

I got high 20s in Wilmington..

I'm going to hold off before acknowledging this one...I feel like I have written far too much this month for .5" of snow.

I was pretty close to that band in the Jan blizzard...def didn't get screwed

I thought you meant more imminent than that. Yea, I still expect something big at some point in January.

They were about 2 weeks apart and there is zero sign of anything of that magnitude.

Well, there is the "generational" storm that I called for in January....unfortunately its in the Great Lakes in December.

"Kind of" to me entails either nuisance crap, or slim odds of something significant. Shades still shut...

Could have easily had 12/16 and this week be big dogs.