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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is your issue with that title? I have no clue what you are getting at...preliminary analysis of the polar domain for winter..IOW, my first thoughts about what the polar area may or may not look like this winter.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not going to be worse than last year.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anomalywise, decent shot we will not.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the odds are fairly strong that we will see a PV take shape in a couple of months, but let me know if you feel differently.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good luck. This thing has been gone for days...the forecast track is never perfect, but it doesn't change the fact there is nothing to pull it up here.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Franklin is OTS as it pertains to the US. Nothing is going to change that.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    You forgot "vapid"!!
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I didn't think the concept was that elusive to grasp.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Best. Storm. Ever.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    They often aren't entirely in sync...I don't expect them to be this year.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think PNA will be + in the mean.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that is different...you need to ensure your model is ingesting all of the latest data. That is different from claiming el nino is strong because the daily hit 1.5.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you know how to interpret that, though...doesn't mean 60" or bust for DC, but rather we should have favorable interludes. You and KA have been doing this a long time...always look forward to the report.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    09-10, you mean....
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    '51-'52 and '53-'54. That is just extra tropical Pacific..obvioulsy the seasons vary greatly depending on the polar fields.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you guys will....but folks on social media and the mainstream won't, not that they care enough for it to matter. lol
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    No worries....I just like to attach a graphic to the link, but its dangerous to do that today because no one reads. lol
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, its useless as a seasonal forecast map....sure. But within the context of a blog focused on ENSO and the extra tropical Pacific, its fairly illuminating.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You clearly didn't read the blog, so why bother to comment- "Obviously not all of these individual seasons will be great matches, but the general overlay of the extra tropical Pacific represents a prudent starting point, since the vast majority of our weather has its origins there. Stay tuned for additional updates and further elaboration next month and throughout the fall season, as superior discrete analog seasons for winter 2023-2024 are identified"-
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is one practice I have noticed from folks on social media...they obsess over the daily fluxations and pleasure themselves to each new daily max like one giant ENSO orgy. All of these important metrics are lagged for a reason...it needs to sustain.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just nice to see clown range start clown' around.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather
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