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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I don't think the Saturday signal persisted to this degree for a full 24 hours...I remember I blogged about it early that AM, and it had faded by 12z that day. But fine....we clearly disagree.
  2. Maybe rushed? At some point, MJO phase 8 at that amplitude will impart a change, fleeting as it maybe.
  3. Maybe the N stream phase messes up, and we lack cold....possible. But there should be a big storm.
  4. If you guys recall, I was all over the system last Saturday decaying on approach, even while the models were dumping copious QPF several days out. I said watch the QPF haircuts...its why I never went over 10", anywhere even in first call, despite 1-2' clowns. This isn't the same thing....that said, that doesn't mean no precip type issues.
  5. The seasonal tendency to weaken on approach was due to RNA/NAO block shearing.....there is somewhat of a PNA ridge here. I don't think this signal weakens.....Sey-Mour Signal
  6. I think people are traumatized by all of the seasonal can kicking. I highly doubt this signal fades...I think the larger issue will be precip type.
  7. JD... I get that appeal of Saturday being closer, and God knows we are all sick of playing soccer with the can...but if there is an issue with a threat, which there is here (confluence), then the closer range works against you. Limiting factors next week are more correctable than they are with respect to Saturday. That said, obviously it's easier for me to say up here.
  8. That is the risk, but I like my odds better of appreciable snows with that one...which is why I said I wouldn't feel as good near the s coast. That said, EPS has been less amped.
  9. Kevin's mind set is non linear, as well....at baseline, he will latch into the nearest threat like a pitbull and be resistant to any reality that runs to the contrary. But if his frustration reaches a certain threshold, then its "Raines to Maines"....or "only nickles and dimes" or...."done for the season" He has cycled through that and returned to baseline...for now.
  10. I've already admitted that. That said, I don't think it's going to pan out for many of any.
  11. Hopefully with each successive suite, people can process this latest failure so we can move past it and focus more collective analysis on next week. I get the resistance...I do...its another can kick, etc...but it is what it is. Get over it-
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