40/70 Benchmark

I guess the question is how much...is it around 170W, like 1925, or 140W, like 1991.

I'm honestly not trying to be sarcastic...honest question. Even if there isn't one, that doesn't mean it can't shift...like last year did to a modoki la nina right as winter began.

Can you point out which pre-1980 intense east based el nino had forcing near the dateline into August? Maybe 1925?

I can relate to what DT said....It seemed like I nailed 2014-2015 because I went for a huge winter, but I actually focused the forecast on a neg AO/NAO, which was wrong. Last season was the opposite. I feel that forecast was alot better than it superficially appeared.

Yea, more speaking to you, rather than at.

Good catch. Thank you...will do.

I get that the ascending solar neg NAO correlation was insignificant, but it was technically slightly negative and given the fact that the easterly QBO consideration is significant, I don't think its unreasonable to give at least a slightly disturbed PV the nod in the event that dateline forcing continues. It looked to me that the ascending/neg NAO relationship was pretty stable given a basin wide el nino...of course, if el nino goes nuclear and forcing shifts east, then it's all moot, anyway. And I am open to hearing why Tonga will have a greater impact in enhancing the PV during an easterly QBO, basin wide el nino than it did during a W QBO modoki la nina last season.

In the ENSO thread...great articles. Thanks.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

2009 was the last one that didn't.

I mean, imagine the comments if JB was claiming a classic modoki with an MEI of 2.1 and vp pinned over Peru...

Webb is acts like JB...just opposite end of the spectrum.

While the extra tropical Pacific may be more hostile, I think the ENSO will be less hostile to winter enthusiasts than those seasons.

This is in line with my preliminary ideas.

Agree.

Those winters are all near or over 100", so sure...I'll bet against a top 10 winter....robust el nino isn't a high-end snowfall ENSO phase for SNE, anyway...2002-2003 is the only one on there. It's better for mid alt. Strong STJ means alot of LBSW deals.

Well, yea...I said that, too. No one cares about that, though....just want the snow.

Or a mid-winter bang, a la 1987.

I mean, there is an easy path for this winter to suck...not desputing that. But the Pacific would need to change and I am not seeing much guidance suggests that it will. I think overall, we are going to continue in a shitty cycle for several more years, but this season is our reprieve.

Reassess after I drop my next blog.

You had been optimistic.....what changed? I am increasingly optimistic.

Added .02" after midnight, so 1.24" event total. 5.29" on the month.

1.22" on the day 5.27" on the month.