40/70 Benchmark

This event isn't going to be comparable to 1997-1998, aside from the robust 1.2 anomalies....seasonal guidance has been petty consistently and emphatically trying to convey that message for months. You can probably get away with dismissing it for another month...maybe two at most. But I can't imagine doing that into November would be wise.

I don't think its going to be frigid. I agree with that, however, it depends where the forcing is in terms of the PNA because if its west of about 160W, then the GOA low is going to be further off of the west coast.

Is this what you are looking for?

Been there a couple of times, but just passing through en route to Uganda.

Notice a lot of the seasonal guidance has ridging INVOF Greenland and Alaska...not a ton of cold, but I can work with that.

Well, it should certainly flip from a latitude standpoint, at least to some degree...no large leap of faith there considering ENSO.

August DM remembers.

"Catastrophic" snowstorms....I'll be sure to toss a dropsonde into a snowbank.

.78" rainfall on the day.

Can't cancel what has passed.

Good place for it.

Great consensus. ONI can be 4.2 for all I care, if it looks like that.

Just looking back at the big east-based events....I don't see how the forcing gets any further east than about 155-160* this winter, which is like 1972. All of the other intense events were further east by this point, and I just don't see that drastic of a flip, as none of the others have. 1972 is def. the most viable analog of the bunch IMO....it was a descending solar, though. Its also not a terrible QBO match, but it did flip westerly during the winter. This one will not. Again, 1972-1973 had virtually no blocking to speak of. I don't see us pulling off what we did last year....if we get the blocking, then we should be good.

Steve probably disagrees lol

Ginxy wearing very, very tight cut-off and faded daisy duke shorts from the mid 80s, while raking the pool water to the lips 'n hips tune lol

It will probably get hot again....just like it snows in March.

Well, its mid-month, not early and we do hear the same thing every February....because its true. Not the back breaking part, but the sun change.

I honestly looked out the window Saturday evening and could discern the difference in the sun for the first time...right on cue with when we do in mid-February.

Bingo. Snowman does know his stuff, though....so we'll see. He def. likes to crunch the berries of the snow hounds, but he isn't like some of the trolls in that he brings something to the table.

This confirms what I have been saying all summer....this next winter will come down to the polar domain. Figure that out, and the winter should be pretty much figured. We aren't going to see the obscenely low heights in the west again. even if the PDO does remain somewhat negative. Only one of those seasons was decent in the east, aside from the January 2016 HECS...and that is 1963-1964. PDO was essentially neutral that year and it maybe similar during the coming winter. Any guesses at the only one of those seasons that had a -AO/NAO??

I feel like this year will be good, but we are going to depend on the Pacific for few years beginning within another year or two bc there will be a lot of +AO/NAO.

This is a different way of concluding what I just did in my blog...the real craptacular el nino seasons do not look like great analogs right now. That doesn't necessarily mean this season will be great, but it is what it is.

Notice he never touched my question...

Well, I don't think it could go any further west than it has been in an el nino, modoki or not, so I agree. And nor would I want it to because it would start to resemble la nina maratime forcing.