40/70 Benchmark

Good place for it.

Great consensus. ONI can be 4.2 for all I care, if it looks like that.

Just looking back at the big east-based events....I don't see how the forcing gets any further east than about 155-160* this winter, which is like 1972. All of the other intense events were further east by this point, and I just don't see that drastic of a flip, as none of the others have. 1972 is def. the most viable analog of the bunch IMO....it was a descending solar, though. Its also not a terrible QBO match, but it did flip westerly during the winter. This one will not. Again, 1972-1973 had virtually no blocking to speak of. I don't see us pulling off what we did last year....if we get the blocking, then we should be good.

Steve probably disagrees lol

Ginxy wearing very, very tight cut-off and faded daisy duke shorts from the mid 80s, while raking the pool water to the lips 'n hips tune lol

It will probably get hot again....just like it snows in March.

Well, its mid-month, not early and we do hear the same thing every February....because its true. Not the back breaking part, but the sun change.

I honestly looked out the window Saturday evening and could discern the difference in the sun for the first time...right on cue with when we do in mid-February.

Bingo. Snowman does know his stuff, though....so we'll see. He def. likes to crunch the berries of the snow hounds, but he isn't like some of the trolls in that he brings something to the table.

This confirms what I have been saying all summer....this next winter will come down to the polar domain. Figure that out, and the winter should be pretty much figured. We aren't going to see the obscenely low heights in the west again. even if the PDO does remain somewhat negative. Only one of those seasons was decent in the east, aside from the January 2016 HECS...and that is 1963-1964. PDO was essentially neutral that year and it maybe similar during the coming winter. Any guesses at the only one of those seasons that had a -AO/NAO??

I feel like this year will be good, but we are going to depend on the Pacific for few years beginning within another year or two bc there will be a lot of +AO/NAO.

This is a different way of concluding what I just did in my blog...the real craptacular el nino seasons do not look like great analogs right now. That doesn't necessarily mean this season will be great, but it is what it is.

Notice he never touched my question...

Well, I don't think it could go any further west than it has been in an el nino, modoki or not, so I agree. And nor would I want it to because it would start to resemble la nina maratime forcing.

How come the monsoon ending in conjunction with the intensification of the +IOD allowed for this and why are we so sure that it can not this season?

I guess the question is how much...is it around 170W, like 1925, or 140W, like 1991.

I'm honestly not trying to be sarcastic...honest question. Even if there isn't one, that doesn't mean it can't shift...like last year did to a modoki la nina right as winter began.

Can you point out which pre-1980 intense east based el nino had forcing near the dateline into August? Maybe 1925?

I can relate to what DT said....It seemed like I nailed 2014-2015 because I went for a huge winter, but I actually focused the forecast on a neg AO/NAO, which was wrong. Last season was the opposite. I feel that forecast was alot better than it superficially appeared.

Yea, more speaking to you, rather than at.

Good catch. Thank you...will do.

I get that the ascending solar neg NAO correlation was insignificant, but it was technically slightly negative and given the fact that the easterly QBO consideration is significant, I don't think its unreasonable to give at least a slightly disturbed PV the nod in the event that dateline forcing continues. It looked to me that the ascending/neg NAO relationship was pretty stable given a basin wide el nino...of course, if el nino goes nuclear and forcing shifts east, then it's all moot, anyway. And I am open to hearing why Tonga will have a greater impact in enhancing the PV during an easterly QBO, basin wide el nino than it did during a W QBO modoki la nina last season.

In the ENSO thread...great articles. Thanks.