40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Not just the Euro, though... -
Anyone bothered to analyze how the current OP consensus manages to stuff our collective orifice with cosmic dildo this go around? I haven't looked at how they arrive at that cutter during what was thought be a favorable stretch.
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If that ever happened, this would have to be a record season for the most useless NAO blocks imaginable.
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Thank god we had the block, or else it may have tracked through Colorado.
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That's my point.
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Euro did not sniff that out. GEM did.
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Okay....gotcha.
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We go through this every March with needing to remind people that it can snow, despite warming to 47 degrees under early October sun. Think of it as the inverse of RAD cooling...if that is "fake" cold, then this is fake warmth.
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So you don't think the MJO goes into phase 8?
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Maybe if he'd been more attentive with diapers, he wouldn't need to clean the truck?
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Cosgrove thinks the 3/11 system will cut into W NYS, kill the block like the Buff blizzard and end winter. Good news is he's been wrong all season.
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Bigger height changes relative to what we've seen? Not a high bar...
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TBH, I'd assume not have a huge PNA ridge coupled with the block...I'd rather not see BWI challenge my seasonal total.
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No one said big PNA ridge, but its at least neutralizing.....big diff from what we have had and more reminiscent of some of our most fruitful patterns.
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The synoptic apex of said pattern appears to be the second week of the month and snowfall climo does not decline markedly for SNE until beyond mid month. Not sure the relevance.
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I don't think the atmosphere in March gives a rat's ass, though. MJO never hit phase 8 all season. This month it will and at break neck amplitude, mind you....at the same time, la nina is fading.
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BTW, this is why some folks responded to me with confused emoji's and cross-eyed looks when I said that January averaged a +PNA....it did, but it was useless because the ridge was off of the west coast, but its still calculated to a +PNA because a John said, the domain space is immense.
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Yea, I read it....great thread. I love that you highlighted the difference between the numerical (fraudulent) PNA we had in January, and the synoptic one that looks to become established this month, which actually....you know...pops a ridge in the west. If there were ever a smoking gun for betting against seasonal persistence, that single factor empties the chamber in my mind.
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I don't view this as a cutter pattern. While I would never advise anyone to venture to view the world through Geroge's bifocals, I would recommend one approach this period with a mind wide open to some exotic potential.
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Lots of seasonal scar tissue is evident....just need to allow the injuries to heal.
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I never view the UK.
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I'm out of work right now to help with the baby...will be back to normal mid week, next week.
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I'm not sure why he can't grasp that...you would think he could wrap his mind around that with two kids of his own.
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I haven't really looked yet, aside from social media orgies.
