40/70 Benchmark

I was resigned to this one being shit.

3-6".

1.25"

I would go ballistic if a HECS whiffed me this month.

My climo is perfectly fine through 3/15. I don't live in Jersey.

You want the coldest anomalies west...who wants Jan 2004.....

Exactly the range I used N of the pike and inland. Lol

1" 33.4

Agree....SWFE.

Not shocking.

Yes.

If I'm wrong, it should become apparent pretty soon.

GEM IMO....sans QPF.

Did you read my rationale?

1/2"

DT has boarded the March train.

Our shot is mainly later...we need to grab a few inches from the n stream crap, which is dicey.

CJ ongoing...

Both.

First Call for Friday Winter Storm: Sometimes Guidance is Right for the Wrong Reason Examining Discrepancies and Potential Errors in Guidance The month of March is set to begin in an active manner, as advertise. Indeed, fresh on the heels of the system currently impacting the region to end the month of February, another and perhaps slightly more significant winter storm is poised to effect the area on Friday. Synoptic Layout: A vigorous piece of energy is poised to eject out of the southwestern quadrant of the region on Friday in begin its journey northeast, as depicted below on the GFS guidance. The European has modeled the initial intensity of the system very similarly to that of the GFS. It is at this early juncture where the discrepancies begin, as the GEM guidance already has the system modeled significantly less intense by early Friday AM than the GFS and Euro. Given the fact that the GEM is in outlier, and the GFS and EURO have superior initialization schemes, it is safe to assume that the GEM is likely in error in this respect. This is important to remember moving forward in the forecast. By just after midnight on early Saturday AM, the GFS has translated the system off to the north east to a position near Lake Erie in a weakened state, as it begins veering more to the east northeast. Intuitively, this make sense when considering the wall of confluent flow that the system encounters, which is resultant from the potent negative NAO block-50/50 low dipole that is in place downstream stretching from Greenland down into the north atlantic. But pay close attention to the intensity of the west atlantic ridge (WAR) on the GFS as we begin to assess the other guidance. The European guidance at the very same time frame during the predawn hours of Saturday, has the low in the same position as the GFS, but significantly more potent and still traveling to the northeast and into southeastern Canada, seemingly undeterred by the aforementioned north atlantic road block. This makes little sense, especially considering that the WAR on the EURO is even stronger than it is on the GFS, which in theory should cause an even greater shearing influence between it and the NAO, 50/50 dipole to its north. Additionally, over amplification is a known bias of this guidance that was just observed with respect to the current system in the medium range. The EURO likely has the correct idea with respect to the stronger WAR because the GEM has it modeled very similarly. It is not out of the ordinary that the GFS is a weak outlier with respect to the WAR because it has a bias of being too northern stream dominant. Additionally, the MJO is currently in phase 7. Phase 7 of the MJO favors a strong WAR, which lends additional credence to the fact the GFS is in error in this respect. Thus the GEM is likely correct in modeling the system as succumbing to the confluent flow faster than other guidance, except for the fact that the GEM is is likely initializing the system too weak initially. This would lend credence to the GFS' middle ground position if it were not for the fact that it is likely under assessing the intensity of the WAR. However, the general track and thermal profile of the GEM can be accepted as the favored solution at this time given the fact that its under initialized intensity of the shortwave is essentially cancelled out by the under initialized strength of the WAR on the GFS depiction. That being said, this does not mean that the GEM is not currently over zealous with its QPF forecast, which must be accounted for given the shearing influence of the confluent flow that it encounters on approach to the region. Favored Storm Evolution: Snowfall break out across southwestern New England early Saturday evening. And then quickly mix with and change to sleet, as a warm south westerly push at about the 700mb level in the mid layers of the atmosphere infiltrates the area. The sleet progresses quickly to the MA/CT and MA/RI border by about midnight, as a mixture of sleet and rain continue over cape cod and the island and the primary low begins to transfer its energy to a secondary in the general vicinity of the Delmarva. But not before the decaying primary induces and easterly onshore flow near the coast. It is during the predawn hours on Saturday, in the early stages of the system, where a coastal front is likely to establish itself in the vicinity of route 128 to the NW of Boston. This will separate a more marginal boundary layer due to an onshore flow, which will slow accumulations somewhat to the southeast, from a slightly colder air inland. The penetration of sleet into the snow shield gradually slows and comes to halt near the Mass pike by about dawn on Saturday, as the low beings to transfer to the coast in the mid levels. Note that while the low has redeveloped offshore at the 850mb level, it has not at the 700mb level and above, hence the transition to sleet and rain across the southern half of the region. By midday on Saturday, the secondary has taken over and is tracking away offshore, which veers winds more out of the north and draws colder air back to the south. This causes precipitation to change back over to snowfall before ending everywhere except for the cape and islands. FIRST CALL: Check back on Thursday for Final Call-

This one is a good read, I think. Prefer a tamer version of the GEM. First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/first-call-for-friday-winter-storm.html

Just started flurrying... 26.2/25

I think the GFS is underselling the WAR a bit, as both GEM and EURO are similarly stronger with it, so GFS is likely to adjust to a weaker storm once it resolves that error.

I think GEM (toss that QPF, though)/GFS blend is prudent right now....expect two trends this week. 1) Colder. 2) Less Impressive storm. No way that SW maintains as much coherence as currently modeled on the EURO. That happens, I'll give up my newborn to George for adoption. I don't think the GEM is awful in terms of its thermal field, but its overdoing the QPF.

Euro will cave...wow. This is like old times with you up for the Euro lol