40/70 Benchmark

Speed of movement is the most overrated element of a snowfall forecast. Get the moisture plus the well placed lift/dynamics and the rest will take care of itself given a favorable track. Missing out the additional 3-6" over 24 hours from shredded returns won't kill me.

I like the Berkshires and to a lesser extent ORH hills/NW CT hills with the easterly flow.

Pretty close to my map...same page.

I want the 969 a hair se of ACK.

Compression looks to be less of an issue here than the Tuesday deal, but not non existent.

These GOM Miller A deals usually come N of modeling.

Well, in a basic sense...negativity has been validated.

Well, he's been right.

Impressive cold spell.... 18.7

I didn't check.

Hopefully the EURO does just as well in this range as it did with the Tuesday event...but it will probably win the Friday deal because it sucks.

It's been the 1980s for me since March 2018.

That trend is unreal from inside of day 6.

"Long duration Miller B" ...more like "moderate duration meteorological vasectomy"

This one blows.

Suprised by the cold...6.3 for the low. Now 9.1

First Call for Significant But Not Major Tuesday Snowfall Subtle Changes at High Latitudes Limit Potential Eastern Mass Weather began to sound the alarms on Wednesday for a March lion that had the potential to be one of the larger storms of this decade, and at the very least the largest of this season. It now can confidently state that it will be the latter and here is why. The Synoptic Situation: What has not changed is that a very vigorous piece of energy still looks to eject out of the southwestern US on Monday and head towards the area. However, it now appears as though the system will run out ahead of the polar vortex (PV) that had been trying to feed into the back side on some of the guidance earlier this week. What has also changed is that heights over the southeastern US are slightly higher than originally modeled, which creates more of a shearing compressed flow and causes the system to attenuate on approach. This is an enormous change because it now means that the system will weaken a great deal on approach, instead of intensifying due to phasing with PV energy feeding into the backside. The reason why is apparent when comparing the last night's GFS model image valid Wednesday AM with the image from the same time from Euro ensemble suite on Wednesday afternoon. Note 4 subtle, but crucial differences: 1) The blocking over Greenland is now weaker and further east, which causes..... 2) The 50/50 low portion of the north atlantic dipole to also be displaced to the east, which causes... 3) The lead system ejecting out of the southwest and approaching the northeast to run out of ahead the PV energy that not feed into the backside, as it looked as though it may earlier in the week. 4) Finally, the NAO block being weaker and slightly further east (1) allows for slightly stronger southeast ridging, which creates more of a shearing compressed gradient between the lower heights associated with the cold over southeastern Canada. The GFS guidance had a much better handle on this earlier this week. Note how much more similar this forecast chart from Wednesday is to what is currently modeled Thus instead of phasing tremendous energy into the backside of the system on approach, it is remaining discrete and attenuating in a compressed flow. The difference is that some storm now becomes merely some storm that will be vanquished from memory faster than a meager snowpack under every increasing March irradiance. Expected Storm Evolution: Snow will overspread southwestern New England late Monday evening. And the rest of the region during the overnight and predawn hours early Tuesday AM. Its possible that some sleet may mix with snowfall near the south coast of Connecticut towards dawn on Tuesday and limit accumulations somewhat, but precipitation should fall as primarily snowfall in an area that has seen just about none thus far this season. Another ramification of the blocking displaced to the east is that the primary low over ontario is allowed to remain dominant for a longer period of time, which causes an onshore flow that could limit accumulations somewhat over eastern areas. This is especially true over the cape and islands, where snowfall will ultimately change to rain. Precipitation should taper off by tuesday evening, as the secondary low becomes dominant and pulls away to the east. First Call: Final Call will to be issued on Monday-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/first-call-for-significant-but-not.html

That's the problem...we've been taking it at 8-10 days out all season.

Not this run...overall trend last couple days.

Not really...if it were doing its work, it would retard the flow enough to get some level of PV ingest. This POS is just shearing out-

Show me 3/4.

I'm resigned to this being NBD...moderate ceiling.

Because every time it pops up, your region is bending me over the Merrimack

Tomorrow.