40/70 Benchmark

I think this season produces a doozy. This isn't it-

I don't see a big diff from 12z thermally speaking...just gave QPF a haircut, which is what I was saying...that is an adjustment to the confluence. Probably mostly a 4-8"....maaaybe 6-10" deal.

EURO already trended weaker this run.

This.

I also expect the system to trend somewhat less impressive, as well. Amounts over 1' should few and far between, if at all.

EURO will sense the confluence probably starting today at 12z and begin to adjust.

It absolutely did. This event propagated downward, which is the smoking gun.

Mid March will be wild.....this has been a glaring signal to me since I did my seasonal write up in latter October/early Novie.

Pretty confident that the Euro suite is over amped to some degree. That said, expect precip type issues/slot for much of the area. This is not a HECS. That window is later.

28.2/21 Overcast

I just spent like 3 hours the other day blogging about it. Check my outlook thread. Additionally, odds are always strongly against rolling snake eyes twice in one season in a pattern like that.

We aren't whiffing on a pattern like that twice in a season.

Not sure about 1959...

Like 40-50"

Say it with me now...everyone....March 1956.

Glad I'm north of that.

Yea, I mentioned that PM Kraft

Final Call for Significant Tuesday Snowfall Subtle Changes at High Latitudes Limit Potential Eastern Mass Weather began to sound the alarms on Wednesday for a March lion that had the potential to be one of the larger storms of this decade, and at the very least the largest of this season. It now can confidently state that it will be the latter and here is why. The Synoptic Situation: What has not changed is that a very vigorous piece of energy still looks to eject out of the southwestern US on Monday and head towards the area. However, what has become clear over the course of this week for reasons discussed on Saturday in the First Call is that the system will run out ahead of the polar vortex (PV) that had been trying to feed into the back side on some of the guidance earlier last week. Be that as it may, some this northern stream does attempt to phase in as the system begins to exit the region on Tuesday evening, which may protract the period of precipitation somewhat as slightly colder air filters back into the region around the low on Tuesday evening. Expected Storm Evolution: Snow will overspread southwestern New England late Monday evening. And the rest of the region during the overnight and predawn hours early Tuesday AM. As warmer air is drawn to the north during the predawn hours of Tuesday AM, snow will begin to mix with and possibly and change to rain along the south coast/cape and islands, but precipitation should fall as primarily snowfall over a large area that has seen just about none thus far this season. The Tuesday morning commute will be highly problematic for the region, as snowfall continues north of the south coast/cape and islands. Although much of eastern Mass and southern Connecticut and Rhode Island will continue to see snowfall during the morning hours of Tuesday, and through midday and into the afternoon, onshore flow coupled with an increasingly strong late February sun will significantly slow accumulations in this area. This may especially hamper accumulations over eastern Mass, due to decreasing lift and dynamics as the shortwave attenuates prior to the influx of some northern stream energy. This is apparent in the soundings across the region. Note how there is significantly stronger lift and more moisture within the -12c to -18c snow growth zone (SGZ) near Hartford, CT. And even to a slightly lesser extent near Springfield, MA. However, note how lift and moisture is not quite as robust within the SGZ in Worcester, MA, which implies that highest amounts in this region are likely to be in the higher elevations of the Worcester hills. By the evening commute, any mixed precipitation over the south coast/ cape and islands should begin to transition back to snowfall, as colder air and a burst of dynamics infiltrates the area as northern stream energy finally begins being ingested as the system pulls away. While this burst of snow will not be of long enough duration to significantly impact accumulations, the timing of it during the evening commute maybe problematic. Precipitation should taper off by before midnight Tuesday evening, as the secondary low becomes dominant and pulls away to the east. Final Call: First Call: Issued Saturday 2/25 @5AM Final Call will to be issued on Monday-

Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/final-call-for-significant-tuesday.html

I will say, if it isn't going to snow, then I would rather it 60 with a slight breeze....but no way would I opt for it over snow.

All kidding aside, GFS has closed the gap by a good margin. Euro still probably superior, but not like it was 5 years ago.

If this was sincere, I completely understand that sentiment.....however, my visceral interpretation to this is that its akin to being rebuked upon attempt to sit next to a girl at the second grade lunch table, then expressing in an angry retort "Fine, I didn't like you, anyway"!

Its really just an infantile response to not getting what he wants for 3 months.

I don't get why some were trying to give it credit on this one.....GFS had the right idea about the further east 50/50 in the first place, while Euro was trying to go HECS at day 5.

God, he's exhausting.