Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    74,789

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will probably do better, too....40.5" last year. I had around that in '97'98 and '72-'73, which are the worst case sceanrios.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Toss statisticals... just getting a clue.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shunt away.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely correct...just my best estimate.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am thinking a cooler version of 2015, given that el nino will be appreciably weaker...forcing should be in a similar locale.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is where the RONI comes into play.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is a wide range of possible outcomes with basin-wide, moderate to strong events.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not at all....easy to do depending on where you picked up the exchange. NBD.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    While I do agree that the SST anomaly configuration is least likely to assume a modoki like configuration, that is not necessarily the case with respect to the velocity potential, which is what is paramount relative to the predominate cold season forcing and resultant weather pattern.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basin-wide is more likely than both.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    They should make Introduction to sarcasm a prerequisite to posting.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even the ones that sucked usually produced at least one or two large ones....the only season that didn't was 1972-1973.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the pattern this winter could be pretty insane for New England during periods of -NAO/AO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna be some nuclear shit going down if we get a system under an anticyclone this year.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel as though there is room for both. There is plenty of substantive met dialogue in these threads, but I don't see the harm in breaking someone's marbles when the opportunity presents itself....life is more tolerable when you can allow for some levity. I don't see anything personal or particularly venomous.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    When have I ever supported him? I have always agreed with you that his primary focus at this stage of his career is click bait. That being said, I'm not sure why anyone would ignore the strong consensus for dateline forcing next winter. Yes, the el nino continues to be heavily east-based at this time, which accentuates the point that the coming winter will be no slam-dunk of a forecast.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Paul Roundy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I would prefer a moderate-strong event in terms of ONI...all set with another 2018-2019.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why all of that MJO talk? This is an ENSO thread!!
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like weakening still has an impact on March.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The forcing is very relevent to ENSO, as its dictated by ENSO. It's like calling posts about storm surge OT in a hurricane thread.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    .81" on the day here.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably February.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    People need to remember that huge storms are relatively rare for a reason. It's not just about getting teleconnection bingo, but you also need to hit on the right wave spacing and relative intensity and orientation of each said index. The latter is often more difficult to achieve than the teleconnections bingo...that is one thing I have learned the past few years during this seemingly interminable cool ENSO stretch.
×
×
  • Create New...