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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO makes me suspect 3 things about this winter: 1) Polar Domain will make or break this season 2) Inceased risk of deconstructive interference with amplifying waves during neg NAO periods..this ties into 3. 3) Idea of a mid Atlantic focus for snowfall with appreciably strong el nino events is less likely this year....at least in terms of historic deals. We may see some sheared out, attenuating waves dump moderate snows down there either fail to turn the corner and/or dizzle out with latitude.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It probably will be strong, but big diff between 1.7 and 2.3.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this ssta distribution would be worrisome if it were December. Do me a favor, look at a ssta anomaly chart from November of last year, and then look at one from January as you recall the overall tenor of last season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    2017-2018 was a very good season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Haha Full disclosure, no way would I be able to do that with my blog and all ..I just wanted to see how confident you were. I will definitely give you credit if you are right, though.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    So, put your posting rights where your keyboard is....lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet you right now the ONI doesn't hit 2.0....loser can't post between 12/1 and 3/31. You even have less to lose with the 5/day deal working for ya....
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense to me.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you have been banging this drum for years.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kind of....RONI attempts to provide a better idea of the intensity of ENSO relative to a warming ambient planet, which obviously plays a role in the strength of the ocean-atmosphere coupling that MEI measures, so it is no coincidence that efforts to add historical context to the current MEI value yield similar results with respect to like efforts pertaining to the RONI. Neither stack up with past super el nino events at this time.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its meant to measure the intensity of the ocean-atmosphere coupling, rather than the shear magnitude of the particular ENSO event.
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  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna be about the polar domain. Point being the expected strength and configuration of this el nino is not prohibitive to blocking.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said the same thing with respect to the RONI... AMJ figures for historical reference. 2015 .73 1997 .84 1982 .68 1972 .80 2023 is .07, which is comparable to 2009 (-.09) and 1986 (-.08).
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  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point is not to expect a big winter...odds are it will be above normal temp wise to some degree. I would just keep an open mind because there is a wide range of possible outcomes this season.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    PS: I don't think we hit 2.0. We shall see.
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  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you look at Ben Noll's response below, he is advocating for use of the RONI as many of us here have been...implying that this isn't going to act like an upper echelon el nino, regardless of ONI. Doesn't necessarily mean it won't be another very mild winter, but it is what it is.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    At the end of the day, you just never know.....who would have thought that a season which featured two historic -NAO blocks would also feature record low snowfall across much of the east coast. ....no relationship in meteorology is absolute and entirely independent of other variables. The guidance is seeing something and I won't be surprised if its right.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Happy to contribute and check it out. Thanks for sharing.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    .80" early today.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its going to be basin wide.
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