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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Yea, my first stab from Sunday ended up being pretty good...never touched the map. 28.2 and trickling downward.
  2. It's a mean of 51 members...getting that to reflect several inches at this lead time is no small feat. Strong consensus for a significant event.
  3. I mean...its probably a trend away from 40"....but def a trend towards a major snowfall.
  4. Euro often over phases, so that wouldn't suprise me. Bottom line is a significant event is likely.
  5. Yea, significant step back on the Euro. Ensembles should follow suite.
  6. This system is a text book example of how to avoid it. Not worried.
  7. I nailed that blizzard in the preceding fall.
  8. March to Begin Like Lion High Impact Winter Event Increasingly Likely to Begin March There is a large contingent of meteorology hobbyists, and perhaps even professionals, who have resigned themselves to the fact that 2023 is going to be the year without a winter. And in a season that has featured one of the warmer January and February periods on record, as well as a near historic dearth of snowfall, it is difficult to not allow emotion to compromise objectivity and to assume that the status quo will carry the region into spring. However, mother nature is well aware of how assumptions often make one look and as Eastern Mass Weather has opined dating back to last fall, this assumption is unlikely to be much different. In a season that hasn't lacked for reasons not to snow, the month of December failed to produce any significant snowfall for the region despite one of the stronger NAO blocks in recent memory. It was expressed in the Eastern Mass Winter Outlook this past November that instances of severe early season high latitude blocking usually reappear later in the season and that this would likely take place early on in the month of March. This pattern now looks to materialize on the heals of the SSW that took place last week. The European guidance is strongly supportive of a very major winter storm from February 28 through March 1: Note the dipole of the negative NAO block and associated 50/50 low providing enough resistance to prevent the strong pocket of energy in the midwest from traveling up through the Great Lakes, and instead to the east to the south of Long Island. The GEM suite depicts a similar evolution: However, there continues to be dissent from the GFS suite, which supports a slightly less assertive NAO bock and 50/50 low that is displaced to the east. This does not allow the coastal energy to become dominant until the system is well off of the coast. While either solution is plausible, the prudent course of action is to expect the most significant winter storm thus far this season. And remain mindful that given the pattern that is modeled to materialize on the more highly skilled European suite, the most impactful winter storm thus far this decade is a legitimate possibility if not yet a likelihood. This is an evolution quite similar to the 1956 analog discussed just last week. Expect a great deal more clarity for the update this weekend-
  9. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/march-to-begin-like-lion.html
  10. I would rather 1 3'er, than 9 4"ers, but maybe I'm in the minority...
  11. I had a big miss with Jan temps, but other than that...its been good. How was the play, Mrs. Lincoln...lol
  12. Nah...he just said he liked 2018 better and expected a tamer outcome. Nothing unreasonable.
  13. I would never forecast over a foot unless within 48 hours.
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