40/70 Benchmark

Good....ready to move on.

Addressing the Question of Whether or Not Winter is Over Matter of Perspective In the world of weather, and everything else for that matter, perception means everything. Thus when one ponders whether or not winter is in fact "over", the appropriate response is highly subjective in nature and is dependent upon both where one lives, and what the term "winter" entails. It is with this in mind that perhaps the question should be reframed to more "exclusive", as opposed to "inclusive", since describing what the pattern is not is less prone to the distortion that is attributable to viewing through a different lens. It is evident when viewing the 500mb prognostications over the course of the next week that a sustained spring time pattern is not evident for the duration of the month of March. This is not to say that it will not feel present on certain days with full sunshine in the absence of a true arctic air mass, such as today, because it will. That is the benefit of being the recipient of late March strength solar irradiance. However, what should be apparent on the chart above valid next weekend is that there continues to be a fair degree of high latitude blocking working on conjunction with impulses periodically ejecting eastward from a very deep western trough. This implies that it should remain seasonably cold and stormy and if this is a pattern that sounds familiar, it should. A pattern consisting of NAO blocking to the north in conjunction with a polar vortex lobe in the vicinity of Hudson Bay Canada is a pattern that would normally support the threat of significant snows across most of the season even at this late juncture. But, as has been the case for most of the season, the potential for harsh winter weather is mitigated due to the ridge of greater heights over the southeast US in response to the very deep western US trough upstream. This not only acts to limit cold air infiltration and encourage a storm track closer to the coast, or even inland, as opposed to offshore, but the compressed medium between the vortex to the north and the ridge to the south causes the system to shear out on approach this weekend. This means that the answer to the million dollar question regarding whether or now winter is over is dependent upon: A) Where you live, of course. What winter means to you...if it means significant snowfall, then the answer significant snowfall, then the answer is likely "no" to the south of the above line and below approximately 1000' of elevation. Locales to the south of that line and at or above 1000' in elevation, across the northern Worcester hills and Berkshires, could see light accumulations. If this sounds familiar, than it should, since these are the locations that have experienced impactful snowfalls all season long and may continue to do so into next week, when a similar evolution may take place Monday night into Tuesday. Rinse & Repeat-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/addressing-question-of-whether-or-not.html

Congrats me.....my prom date weighs 634lbs, too, but at least mine has two legs.

I think I will do pretty well there.

What I should say is the PNA being biased so far to the west is what killed snowfall...it actually hasn't been that negative. This is why the devil is in the details...on paper, you look at the PNA and think that its not a deal breaker.

This is a perfect example of why I have been so frustrated past several years...I get everyone's sloppy seconds. Too far north last year, and too far south this year. Never fails.

Yea, that is what I hope people understand....don't get me wrong, I will heavily weigh the fact that I blew snowfall into the grading....but its such a crapshoot. I will say, though....the PNA has been more negative than I thought.

Its funny how I have largely hit on the pattern, insane Jan warmth notwithstanding, yet my seasonal snow totals are going to be high for much of SNE. And I remember last fall having to explain why my snowfall totals were relatively "low" given the pattern advertised. Never get asked that question again-

Strongly agree with this guidance.

I'm not sure we have had a winter that has hosed you...I mean, poor SOB, you only get 110" in 2015? Its physically impossible for you to get hosed.

Isn't mother nature a witch....this is how the regression gods are repaying me. Not with a great winter jackpot...no, I get to have 40" while you are rolling snake eyes. Yaaaay...you get the shiny new coat hanger for your abortion of a winter...scooter gets the rusty one.

I get that, but my point is that we couldn't pull it off all winter, so its more unlikely than "climo" to do it this year. Its going to result in shitty weather and fraudulent clown maps.

I was at UML for the May 2006 floods...those were bad, too.

Oh, in that case, its exciting...let me jump under the desk and pleasure myself.

Flood waters up to thy nipples

I have a high degree of confidence that any significant snow in SNE will be confined to places where relatively few people live.

No strong since 1992? That isn't accurate...we've had 97 and 15, which were both over 2.0 ONI...hell, even 2009 edged into strong.... Yea, I mean its not a huge leap of faith to say we probably aren't reaching 2.0 ONI lol 1.5 is much more doable....

Well, the average of those 3 periods is 14.3 years. I will bet against 2.0+ ONI this year, but you think what you will. I didn't say its impossible...

I think people are finally done taking the cheese this season. I know I am.

I don't recall ever seeing a winter with so much going on produce so little.

I mean, if it were to be a legit event, sure...but odds are it would be another marginal lube job that would leave the majority trying to sneak a peak through the crack of altitude's bedroom door.

There is a periodicity to those super events...1972, 1982, 1997, 2015....8 years is too soon.

Lucy has pulled the football back from this guy for the last time. Keep your football, you sadistic b&tch...and choke on it-

No, I agree the pattern isn't pleasant and will be cold....this season will end the same way it began and carried on.....useless. This winter is like an older brother that has you in a head-lock giving one incessant "noogie", and just won't let you out.