40/70 Benchmark

Yea, that fluctuation over the past couple of hours will be pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things.

TWC has a crew there.

Yes, I am not saying it will halt (unless it truly is ERC), but these little structural nuances are probably why it has yet to really rip a hole in the atmosphere as of yet. Still time.

I don't think you can definitively say its solar max yet.

Probably Jim Hughes.

It def won't be as severe as last year.

Regardless of whether or not its technically an ERC, I would think that would keep things in check at least to a degree in terms of intensity.

Yea, TWC said the same. Take 'em down on max intensity if that is indeed the case.

Yea, -PDO is a forgone conclusion.

I don't think anyone is forecasting a replica of 2009 or 2002...all that has been said is that the forcing and MEI are currently similar, which is a sign that this isn't behaving as a traditional canonical el nino...not that will act as a modoki per se. Maybe periods, though.

I was just speaking in general, but the area near Cedar Key is tucked in, which is probably why they have never had a major strike...kind of a mini Georiga.

Well, not physiologically, but it does tell us areas that are perhaps more geographically prone than others...like Hateras vs the Georgia coast.

You need to actually read up on the volcanic implications if you are going to use it. Yes, it seems like it played a role in the strong PV that season, but that eruption was different on that it released a ton of SO2. This one was all water vapor. Pinatubo also had a drastic effect the very next winter....last season was a near neutral NAO in the mean (slightly positive) with two major episodes of blocking. There is not much of a signal for solar max....however, ascending solar is linked to negative NAO and descending is linked to +. We are still ascending.

His rationale is all bogus...the volcano is a convenient excuse, but its not impacting us.

Apologies to that one dude whom I triggered, but here is my Final Call....feel free to not read or look because I am insignificant. Major Hurricane Strike on Florida Panhandle Expected Wednesday | Eastern Mass Weather

Severe sleep deprivation and markedly decreased productivity about 18-24 hours away-

Yes.

I made one post...and then one more because someone asked.

Stand by....just gimme a few

Yea, writing up now and I can't rule out 5. You guys know me and am not about hype, but this will be bad.

I had 125mph yesterday.....the 150 peak may be off, though. I think the delay means maybe a slightly lower peak, but negligible impact on LF intensity.

I expect the worst damage to be fairly concentrated near and just to the east of LF.

Yes....also less time for ERC...the only positive is that it won't be a worst case for surge, as ERCs are a vehicle for growth. Later intensification also means less time to pile water. This is potentially a worst case for wind, not surge.

Yea, my time-table was off by about 12-24 hours...I shouldn't have dismissed that initial shear, but I am not sure that is a good thing for the coast when all is said and done.