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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I see what Scott is saying...its precarious and it's easy to favor rain right now. If it looks like this tomorrow, then I will back off for first call. But I don't think it will look this dire...I think the capture will tick later and perhaps a less proficient phase. I would rather deal with this, then have the rug swept out to the east.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, there is a reason I don't do first call until 3 days out. No reason this can't follow the theme of the winter and rain on us...I'm just trusting my instincts here.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel very good about this for most areas just off of the coast. I'm sure the usuals like scooter, Ryan and pickles will wake up and have this place like a morgue, but I am very intrigued.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Coming to a consensus on a stall capture near cape IMO....increasing consensus on this capture scenario is going to cause more members to turn into e MA, at least initially. It could ultimately be a trend towards rain....sure, but I don't think it is. JMO.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I deleted that. Its about where it captures....this run is deeper...we have lost the members that didn't phase, so the mean is NW. Its going to come down to where it turns N.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Biggest take away is how much more intense the EPS has grown with this signal....more agreement on the capture and tug, but the spread is how quickly....some members over e MA, some over cape and some east. There are more of e MA now bc we have greater agreement on the capture. I think the ACK group is right.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    EPS captures south of ACK and crawls up over cape. Whiff off of table
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like from my area back to ORH for best snows...obviously ORH the most, but as far as lower terrain, I like my spot. I call BS on EURO.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was wondering if having if a bit more beefy for Saturday would have helped Tuesday, but guess not...ultimate FU run to have confluence block the first system, then have it high tail it out in time for a rain bomb 2-3 days later. I still refuse to believe that happens, but if there were ever a winter to squander two periods of major blocking, it's this season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not the worst think in the world ro be reliant on less proficient phasing at day 5.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, it's totally possible...I just don't think its right.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Think it's too amped.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Scooter "Those are the risks".
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro will be amped.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its probably like a Dec 92 scenerio where half or 2/3s of that is snow for me and just about all for ORH.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Now watch the EURO sit on my face and fart out a powderfreak bonnanza.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ukie:
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    18z EPS was a small step back.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I disagree. Having the N stream phase in a bit later would have been. This has a much higher ceiling than 8-12", dude.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I used them last weekend.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just wheel me out onto the yard with a few diapers and a laptop and leave me
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    If GFS is warm its bc it hasn't phased the n stream in yet
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I said earlier we need to get this to Friday
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