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Exactly. Thank you. I was busy with Beryl last night, but this perfectly illustrates the point. Total agreement with you here.

Yea, agree...intensity will determine alot, which is why I hedge US threat.

Last update prior to a potential First Call on Friday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/devastating-hurricane-beryl-poised-to.html

IDK...that ring of lightning around the eye doesn't scream "weakening" to me....though I'm sure it's not rapidly deepening, either given sat. appearance.

We can agree that it has some utility, but exactly what that is and how great it is remains to be determined. I am sure not all of us will see eye to eye with respect to a frontier concept within a frontier science.

No, I agree with this....I think the MEI was a bit wonky and not reflective at 1.1 or 1.2....I think the RONI peaked at around 1.5 and the was a good proxy for ENSO intensity IMO.

Yes....1994-1995 and 2006-2007. Two other negative(ish) PDO seasons, but the warmer west PAC last year made the MC influence even more dramatic, not to mention a warm global base state.

I think the PDO being so negative was at least partially a reflection of a poorly coupled El Niño.....intuitively speaking, it makes sense that the one element of a poorly coupled super El Niño that would be relatively unmitigated is the potent STJ given all of the warmth around the globe right now.

1972 probably got the PDO near neutral because the RONI wasn't as cool that year, most likely due to the cooler west PAC relative to last year. I was slow to catch on, but Bluewave nailed it with that marine heat wave.

Yep....1994 and 2006 weren't too dissimilar, either.

If it crosses dead-center, then that is possible.....but its not going from a 3 or 4 to a TS. It would to be a confluence of factors in addition to the island.

I'll take the over unless shear begins to have a much greater impact....the island itself won't do that, especially considering speed of movement.

These are great points....hadn't thought of that.

The effect will be negligible, which is why Gilbert resumed intensification immediately....that would not have happened had the core been significantly disrupted.

Look at all of the other super El Niños......you had the strong west-east dipole across the Pacific in terms of SSTs and pressure, which produced much stronger WWBs. That whole system was much less pronounced last year, which is reflective of a more moderate event.

We can agree to disagree on this. The cooler RONI was a reflection of how the West PAC warm pool acted to partially negate the warm ENSO influence, as evidenced by the high residence time of the MJO in phases 4-6 and the Aleutian ridging. That is not typical super El Niño, regardless of the fact that it was also a warm result. Not complicated....+ SST anomalies don't have the same capacity to alter forcing schemes when surrounded by a sea of warmth. ....same reason a 980mb low is much stronger when there is a 1050mb high upstream as opposed to a 1020mb high. its all about the gradient. CC is making this a more prevalent issue that it had been in the past.

Does anyone have the link that that shaded super ensemble product? TIA...

The North Pacific was pretty different.

Defining El Niño indices in a warming climate - IOPscience

Not according to the research....

Yea, I got that right but was flat-wrong about the implication of it and how it would manifest.

@snowman19Must love this....

I don't disagree with any of this. Just discussing the run, but I do think keeping an open mind is a vital part of seasonal forecasting.

I'm not saying it's right, but that is not a very warm 500mb pattern to me, at least for the NE....ostensibly it is.....but if you really look at it, that is a sneaky cold pattern because southern Canada is cold and the PV is elongated. This is what I have been saying is the avenue to a decent winter. May gain more credence if its consistent and the ACE ends up into orbit.