Your thought process is far too rigid and simplistic.... @brooklynwx99had the perfect word for it, which conveniently escapes me.
Ideally, el nino would be weaker in order to ensure more N stream dominance vs the STJ, but it doesn't have to end as badly as 2010 did, either....we could have easily got hit with that sequence in February, and that season is remembered like 2002-2003, which was a similar el nino.