40/70 Benchmark

Yep. Great post....nothing has changed...I was a bit spooked at the start of the month that I may have been a touch too mild, but it may be the other way....change maybe a bit late, but nothing is canceled.

Nothing to melt

The NAO/AO are not totally irrelevant, though...you can see in the December temp anomaly chart that it kept the NE from torching even more...while that doesn't matter in December, I think it would in a month to six weeks from now. But we all agreed this would not be a very cold year and I agree that Pacific is more important.

2.28" total RF

Too be fair, I think #2 goes both ways.....def more posters biased toward cold, though.

Down to 45 from 60.

.75" as of midnight.

I don't know of anyone denying climate change.

I think the MJO is contributing to the more +NAO/AO late month, but I agree the PAC jet is the main cause of the warmth.

We'll see.

Too bad we may lose the holiday period, but climo is an uphill battle for the atlantic CP at that point, anyway.

I had +1 to +3 this month, so 1.9 would work.

I think the NAO also prevented a full on torch in the NE, too...not that it mattered, aside from ski areas.

Nope. Don't need the MJO, aside from maybe helping to trigger the initial change...I am content to handing the reigns over to the basin wide el Nino for later in Januart through February.

We are going to see volatility among medium and long range guidance during the transition time, so I advise everyone to be mindful of premature spiking of the football, regardless of expectation.

I mean, even 2003 started that way....its not a big deal.....1987, too.

December could be a wash.....that is possible. I will admit it to getting sucked in a bit for the holiday period, but would I be suprised or would it cause me to reconsider anything if it takes until after NY? Nope.

As usual, an oasis of objectivity in a sea of impulsive knee-jerk overreaction. It goes both ways...there was a great deal of premature football spiking from winter enthusiasts at the onset of December. I agree with all of this, though still do favor an eventual SSW....not that it is the end all, be all...but it is what it is.

Agree.

Happy holidays.

The crap pattern will change....maybe Xmas will be 50 degrees and maybe it will take longer than many of us had thought...maybe it won't. But keep in mind that periods of flux will often feature marked volatility in the extended range on guidance, so try to take a step back and wait. Look how everyone was spiking footballs for a time about December prospects when we were transitioning from the cold November regime to this. Even @raindancewxisn't calling for a blow torch of a winter, as his NE snow defecit is more tied to a flukey seasonal precip hole based on -PDO analogs, which is far more precarious and correctable than a 1997-1998 redux. Just enjoy the holidays, play in puddles and go with the flow.

This. I have zero interest in this....but all we will hear about until Monday night. I get it, its weather, blah, blah.....but nothing compelling about it IMBY.

Yes. He likes to low key troll cold/snow lovers.

Obviously....