40/70 Benchmark

I'm not a doctor, but if I were, I would diagnose you with a gross tolerance deficit.

For the onset of the transition....probably no snow until after NY.

LOL I like them both...smart guys, but I just don't get that.

I can't figure out whether some of these dudes like snow or not.....like in real life when you can't quite wrap your mind around someone's sexual preference...it's just a mystery. Snowman and ALLsnow are like that with me....they either don't like snow, or have some of the most deeply entrenched compensatory defensive proclivities ever observed. Like "I love snow so much that I can't tolerate the thought of not getting it again, so let me "act out" against anyone that dares to entertain the notion of cold and snow". lol

He was naked in the squad car with him....wearing nothing but the brass.

Another day, another language for @snowman19to tell us winter is over lol Hopefully for tomorrow's lesson we will learn to say "cold rain" in hieroglyphics.

I expect a favorable week or two to kick off the new year mainly due to the Pacific, then a milder stretch before the proverbial hammer drops late January as the SSW propagates.

In a few weeks we have yet to even reach climo nadir lol

He has already accomplished his goal, which was to leave 2-3 pages of verbal carnage in his wake lol

It would be one thing if we had this pattern in mid March, but January shouldn't be an issue....I would favor the interior and elevations, sure....

Yea, we have been through this every day....it means it won't be zero degrees near the coast anytime soon, but you don't need arctic air to snow above the 38th parallel in January.

Eh......dunno about "all"....

I got on the subway around Memorial day to go into Boston and there were still snow piles along side of a warehouse where the snow had slid off of the metal roof during the winter. And I live NW of town...the south shore was ground zero. That is absurd for coastal SNE...that is like Jackman, ME shit.

Every subforum has some weenies, though....SNE has them. Bluewave reminds me of raindance in the sense that I initially mocked him because I didn't like much of what he had to say, until I quietly realized that he probably knows more than I do. Humility is the greatest gift anyone can ever give you.

I will admit that if I hadn't gotten clobbered with that extra chromosome, it would have been an inny not an outty here

I never realized what a treasure this subforum is.....if you have an open mind, one can actually learn the most from perspectives that don't always necessarily align with that of your own. Really appreciate the alternate lens through which some of you guys view things.

However, I do not expect snowfall totals rivaling either of those seasons...at least in SNE, but otherwise agreed.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/quiet-mild-christmas-will-transition-to.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/quiet-mild-christmas-will-transition-to.html

Quiet & Mild Christmas Will Transition to Progressively More Seasonable Holiday Stretch Significant Snowfall Unlikely Until 2024 Using history as a guide, Eastern Mass Weather explained in the Winter Outlook why the convective forcing pattern in association with el Nino that had become established throughout the fall was unlikely to change during the winter. Thus far in the early going this has proven accurate. As forcing has remained anchored in the vicinity of region 4 on the western flank of El Niño, which coincides approximately with MJO phase 7. This represented a large portion of the rationale for expecting a fairly mild first month of meteorological winter. Note the resemblance between the composite for MJO phase 7 during an El Niño: The December composite of robust El Niño events per meteorologist Eric Webb: And the current pattern across the North America: However, the changes that were expected to evolve during the holiday period and into the new year are underway and are beginning to be signaled more emphatically among guidance. New Year: New Weather Pattern There is growing support for the highly anomalous ridge that has been residing in the center of the continent as a by product of a ferocious Pacific jet to retrograde to the northwest. And eventually reach a position in northwestern Canada that will allow for the delivery cold colder air as the Pacific jet retracts. This is consistent with the progression of an El Niño season in which convective forcing is focused at the western flank of the ENSO regions as 2003 gives way to 2024. While colder air is unlikely to become entrenched enough to afford much opportunity for a significant winter storm for the middle portion of next week across the forecast area, some significant snow is possible across the higher terrain and especially northern New England. Then all eyes focus on the anticipated warming of the polar stratosphere and likely SSW as the ball drops, which promises to couple with the aforementioned changes to ensure an active second half of winter.

I think it will in general, but probably some pulses in there....I don't expect a standing orgy wave like 2015, but an extended wintry stretch.

Well, I was fairly well prepared for that reality mentally, as I spent about a week describing why it would happen in pretty vivid detail. But as a fail safe, the wife, kids and rewarding career tend to keep me grounded should January-February some how not work out as expected.

My mental health is just fine, which is why people (technically their insurance companies) pay me damn good money to for assistance in that capacity.

Yea, I have a hard time envisioning a positive outcome for SNE on that next one....gonna have to wait for 2024 IMO.

This is similar to some of the looks on guidance that we get when that ridge begins retrograding.