40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Greenline is down, I think.
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Eh, we're all getting old.
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Yea, just about time....firing up my model perscriptions.
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"As I get colder, I don't mind the torches so much"....you have said something to that effect on several different occasions.
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Says the guy who cries about the cold every winter for the past 10 years.
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I can't stand driving in town, but I'll probably be there....no issues with the venue.
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I need a Miller C.
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Cool. Same
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I would think at least 8 based on the poll....
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Its not dropping....these folks were the minority that voted for other dates.
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2pm. I am going to leave the date 12/2... I don't see anyone who originally went 12/2 now saying that they can't make it, which would be cause for change....I know that confuses the more feeble minded, but it is what it is.
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Safe to assume @CoastalWxis out because I don't think he has ever ended up coming once he expressed doubt lol Would 12/9 be easier for you?
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So it seems like you are out. Which date did you vote for?
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I have yet to see anyone explicitly say that they can make 12/9 and not 12/2....Jerry maybe, but he also said he can try to show up during the PM and he normally doesn't stay late, anyway. Scott may have a sitter issue, but he didn't say the next week would be any better. What I do see is 7 votes for 12/2 and 3 votes for 12/9.
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I think this timing is perfect TBH.....the only season that I can recall to have early December snow not rot is 1995....every other large early December snowfall was skunked and nearly gone by the holidays. I am talking e MA coastal plane...obviously this is probably different in the ORH hills.
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Why would we move it to a date where less people will show per the poll? Are there any folks who would like to change their vote?
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You have a point about the PV, but no one expected this season to be frigid...all the more reason to be leery of the early threats until climo catches up.
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I am confident that this season will provide enough high latitude blocking for that not to be a major issue for the majority of the season. Perhaps I will be wrong, but the passage of the MJO through the maritime continent in early December is not a sign of that.
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I am going to keep abreast with the tropics more than I have in previous seasons, as that is why I missed the mild mid winter stretch last season......I don't see any deviation from the forecast as of yet....el Nino maybe peaking on the high end of my 1.7 to 1.9 range, but that is NBD.
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My thoughts on the month was always serviceable and backloaded.....and you take that an bolt in a strong el Nino. The hand wringing in November is beyond me.
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You have to remove the emotion and view each season in a vacuum....you can't look at it through last season's lens or this is what you get.
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Its several years of cool ENSO PTSD....having the MJO in the maritime continent is triggering, especially in light of having those huge NAO blocks last season not bare any fruit for the coastal plane.
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I am I would advise everyone to set expectations for around Christmas and beyond....while past mid month may be fair game, the greater likelihood is a bit later than that IMHO...best not to set up for disappointment.
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Yes, I know....not concerned at all. I would much rather this than a canonical el Nino look....as it means the forcing is still west. During a warm ENSO, you would rather be trying to move the forcing east than west....much more achievable correction vector. Its like when folks are comforted by the GFS being offshore, rather than inland in a synoptic sense. But 'alas, its going to trigger some cold ENSO PTSD from the snow spazoids.
