40/70 Benchmark

Oh, I know...just using your post as a launching pad, so to speak. Its convenient how some of these folks are pointing out how they see no sign of change at WEEK 4, as we have other posters drawing attention to the significant discontinuity at DAY 4 . Keep in mind how guidance is likely to play catch up following any major strat warming. The issue maintaining objectivity is two-fold: 1) We have frustrated weenies 2) We have trolls preying on said frustration.

I will probably end up too cold in January...my honest guess. But you tell me how this has aged from early November: January 2024 Outlook January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2) This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8.

I love how some folks exercise selective memory, too....no mention of the predicted SSW and ultimate high latitude blocking that culminated in a 3' snow event 50 miles away from Boston last March.

Sure, which I have pointed out...why is that relevant? I also said the same thing in 2014 and 2015...... You don't see why it will look different in week 4..great. Carry on.

I mean...you tell me. Balance of November-December 2023 Outlook December Analogs: 1953,1957,1965,1982,1986,1987,1991,1994,1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2018(x2)

I mean, its disappointing that December was warmer than expected and entirely devoid of snowfall, sure.....but its not a huge deal because I didn't expect a good month. And it doesn't change how I feel about latter January and February. No...not at all.

January is a month in a great deal of flux and the second half should be much more wintery.

This fits with the anticipated progression...I have always thought there would be another period of warmth after the early month cool down, while the any strat shenanigans propagate, so that makes sense to me...I think the MJO may also be going Maritime again.

They just mean a continuation of no snow in NE.

Totally. I have been pinned to a 1.7 to 1.9 peak ONI range since June.

Another one that Snowman must have missed lol He normally streamlines that guy's twitter feed via IV.

I will be surprised if we don't get really rocked later this season. In the meantime, the "persistence" groupies can have a field day. Everything appears on track AFAIC.

When you go from a roaring PAC jet with no cold, to a medium RNA with cold loading west, that is a change.....independent of snowfall in SNE.

All I implied. Enough said.

Yes....it could trend stronger, but I don't see it as being prohibitive. It could work as a favorable cool ENSO paradigm to lead into the better el Nino like stretch.

To me, that just means the cold loads west first and maybe modifies some as it comes east, but its not a death knell. All I want is storms and seasonable temps.

Freudian!

10 Years doing this and you never stop learning.

Reality:

I'll tell you one change I am going to making next year is to stop using the fall sensible weather match seasons to formulate the winter monthly composites, as it only works for the DM mean forecast composite. The monthly analogs do a much better job conveying my expectations on a month to month basis, which should be expected. Here is my December analog composite map: VS the DM composite for December

Probably lends itself to variability.

Society gets carried away with CC when we have these runs of shit-winters, which we have always had. We were due for a horrendous decade, like the 50s and 80s...and yes, they are warmer now then they were then....because the globe IS warming.

I'm just quoting what Cohen said. Clearly I don't expect a -3SD NAO and the oceans/hemisphere are much warmer.