40/70 Benchmark

I honestly think the most likely reality is that the west PAC is in fact driving this multi-year run of eastern futility, but it just so happens be the vehicle for the most recent round of cyclical variance. We have always had cycles like this.....the west was a barren wasteland for years and now are enjoying a several year run of revitalization. Something will flip it back at some point. Of course, the wintert time daily mins will drive up the DJF anomaly even more so the next time it does. JMHO.

Obviously the climate is warming dramtically, but a lot of folks don't realize that the vast majority of that warming is experienced during periods of time when the stakes are lower...ie the ability for heat to escape on clear, calm nights is reduced significantly. However, the lack of snowfall of late, at least in this region, is due primarily to just bad patterns mixed with some awful luck. Its comical how the stars have aligned perfectly to avoid a well placed/time high. Simple as that. Even Raindance will tell you this....the pattern has blown for the east. Its not some magical tipping point....but even if you want to entertain the notion that the warmer west Pac is causing said changes, there is still some dreadful luck that we can just never time a high right. We have had shit seasons in the past were we caught a break and got big snow, anyway.

I wonder why that little bubble from MHT down to ASH is so often ground zero for heat in the region...must be a combo of being far enough from the marine influence, at the southern flank of the MRV and at the base of the higher terrain over the interior to accentuate the downslope element..

85.1 back at the ranch.

Stay......safe?

Paying the piper for 2011 and 2015....balance is just about squared up. Hopefully we sneak out a half decent season over the next few years, then I think we load up for another very nice run around the turn of the decade....near solar min and flip of the PDO in terms of multi-decadal trend. I think this decade is akin to the 50s and next decade maybe more like the 60s (modified).

One more note on this....I think the run on more negative NAO seasons will hold off until we get closer to solar min, as descending solar is pretty averse to such and outcome.

I am far from sold on a stong peak in terms of ONI, but nor do I really think that it matters much.

Yep. No argument.

Keep me posted on that formula, but I'm not optimistic. I was actually on a roll with the AO/NAO for a few years, but last year I was off..expected it close to neutral and it was pretty +.

I don't think anyone has been doubting the potential for a high Atlantic ACE. Would bump analogs like 1998 and 2005. You could argue 1995 and 2017, too, but I don't like those years for other reasons.

My honest opinion is that there will be more down seasons and probably a decrease in average snowfall, but when we get it the ceiling will be higher than ever. I have said before that this is a trend I am fine with. I will gladly pass on a few 6-8" events in exchange for one 20"er.

Now post the snowfall trend for the same period if you want to provide a truly accurate portrayal.

Well, its more of player in La Nina seasons and I think it ties into the extra tropical Pacific more....if we see a very high ACE, may mean more of a -WPO this year is my guess. My main qualm with 2007 is not ENSO, but rather QBO and potentially ACE.

This is actually something that I was privy to....the disconnect between the MEI and ONI means that ENSO will not be as prominent a driver and thus extra tropical influences will be. What I failed to recognize is just how anaomalous the WPO would become and that is what ran the show. While it can meana colder outcome due to the reduced likeliehood of a stronger ENSO event inundating theh igher latitudes with warmth, that isn't necessarily the case in the event we end up withman extra tropical driver doing the same thing, which is what the ++WPO/-PDO combo did.

I think you are weighing ONI too heavily....the extra tropical Pacific was actually fairly similar to 2007 this past winter with the potent +WPO and -PDO. That was also another season in which the forcing was waaaay west, but it just didn't matter. Why? El Nino wasn't driving the bus...the hostile extra tropical Pacific was. The MEI was actually a very good match...they aren't as far apart intensity wise as you may think and neither were huge players. Being overreliant on the MEI on the heels of what happened last season is indicative of an unwillingess to adjust IMO.

I agree. If we manage another disaster winter in the NE, it will be due to the Pacific....though you can never rule out one well-time NAO pulse leading to a game-changing storm.

1995-1996 isn't even a part of the dicussion IMHO....I was more referencing years like 2007-2008.

If anything, this is likely to be a case in which the ONI may peak at say 1.4, but the MEI/RONI are like 1.7. Same page.

Only caveat being that most of the big gradient seasons occured during -QBO if you look.

If anything, I think there may be less recurves than typical this year.

I don't think its going to make much of a difference because the PV is probably going to be very stout, anyway. The tenor of this winter will again be reliant on the Pacific....shocking, I know. Agree on a very well coupled La Nina....should be like 2022-2023 in that respect, as well as the quick shift west.

Yea, puff-puff pass on the '95-'96 analog.

Hope Allison and the kids are off getting ice cream

Hit 81 yesterday.