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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I will say is that ACE doesn't go bonkers, it makes the winter call very easy.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its reflective of the decay of society in general....less impulse control and a greater proclivity towards instant gratification....social media is killing us.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    We make into September without anything other than Ernesto, then I think its fair to question some of these hyper-active calls...especially if Ernesto doesn't make major status, which would cap its ACE accumulation.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which makes sense because if La Nina remains east-based, it is likley due to some competing force that prevented the event from fully maturing, which would be reflected by the RONI. What I love about that site is the ability use other climo periods, but that feature isn't working right now, so we're relegated to using 1991-2020, which of coruse skews anomalies colder. When I made the charts, I used the appropriate climo perios...for instance, 1941-1970 for 1974-1975.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think its going to be wall-to-wall +AO/NAO...maybe mid winter will be.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Notice how is looks a lot more like the Modoki composite, rather than the east-based composite...this is what I was pointing out to Chuck.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is 1955-1956, as I have many of these saved.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Something is up with it lately, but here it is... https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    This winter I got 99 problems, but a dud Nina ain't one.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully Ernesto is the last snoozer-system for awhile.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...all I meant in my replay to @mitchnick...which is why the hope would be for Bluewave's amplified MC MJO in October to salavge any kind of respectable winter in the east.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    A warm DM for most of the east is a given......but I guess I would take the core of the "cold" being in the N plains vs the PNW, as perhaps we could get come front-ender table scraps here in central New England before systems transition to rain.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    2010-2011 was central based...it wasn't west.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with that....its reversed. A canonical El Nino is east based, as the WWB pile the warmest anomalies into the eastern zones, but in a mature La Nina, the easterly trades push them west. East-based events are weaker on average.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Already into weak La Nina range.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    You have it backwards.....it would produce a stronger cool ENSO Walker Cell relative to the ONI, as was the case in 2022-2023.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    The easterly trades tend to push the max anomalies west, so stronger trades generally equal a stronger, more west based La Nina.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I couldn't care less what the ONI does...La Nina will be moderate.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stay safe.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would love a cold December...I disagree.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, could be.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would honestly act like we have hit the lottery with a +2 winter.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I prefer 1999 and 2007...1999 is a better solar, QBO and ENSO match than 1998.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I am rooting on La Nina....the discrepany between RONI and ONI will ensure that the only path to a decent winter for most of the east coast is for the La Nina to beef up enough to excite an amplified MC MJO response during the fall, so that hopefully its more subdued come winter. Bit more margin for error from around the latitide of central Mass and points north, but I am talking for most.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you are probably right, but from my perspective there is no need to rush anything out...makes no difference whether I do it in late August or late September/early October.
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