40/70 Benchmark

Slow and steady until dawn...then boom.

I don't think the timing of the cycle of internal processes bodes well for FL....they need to pray this never quite gets its act together. I said when it interacted with Yucatan that any chance of a prelandfall EWRC was out the window.

I expected any RI to hold off until early Thursday and that looks well played attm. Still feel reasonably good about the 125mph forecast peak, but will need to evaluate tomorrow if that is too conservative.

I was thinking about that one as a comp...I'll have my Final Call out around midday tomorrow. Enioy tracking guys.

Especially tomorrow as that incoming trough enhances diffluence.

It will take longer to tighen up, but another ramification of a core that large is that we may not even see an EWRC prior to landflall.

Yes...probably when the NAO goes negative.

Yea, maybe that in conjunction with the size...both are factors in determining the wind-pressure relationship.

Yea, this is what I have been stressing.....systems like Charlie will pale in comparison to this even it hits as like a 2.

I was about to say... the size of the system is already evident by the distorted wind-pressure relationship....the gradient is taking a long time ot build. Winds will likely respond quickly tonight as the core becomes established and tomorrow should be fun.

I understand why this is still a severely -PDO and will likely remain as such for winter given how much more prominent the west PAC warm pool is relative to the warmth off of California. However, I still thnk we may be in for some appericable stretches of +PNA this season....I would rather that than an icebath off of Cali. This is the essence of how we need to view everything now given that the world has warmed so much. Back in the day, you could focus on a single node of warmth and glean a great deal with respect to the overall tenor of a season...but in our contemporary climate of competing marine heat waves, everything is relative and this sometimes leads our traditional teleconnections astray. If one were to view the Pacific basin through the lens of yesteryear, it would look more favorable with the warming near Cali just as El Nino did last year with the warmth being west.....but the west PAC was warmer than western ENSO zones and that was neglected at the forecaster's peril. This greatly complicates the process of properly diagnosing El Nino events.

Opal was a much smaller system IIRC....this is going to be an extremely damaging storm and it can't be stressed enough how trivial the difference between 100 mph and 130 mph sustained wind is going to be. It will really just be a point of obsession for us dorks. The surge will be immense.

Yes.

Absolute agreement.

Its a severely negative PDO and a modest La Nina in its incipient stages....they are mutually reinforcing to a degree.

Conditions shouldn't be great for about another 30 hours or so.

I think its atill trying to mix out the deleterious influence of the ULL as the core becomes established.

I think powerful hurricanes recurving a bit faster than modeled when interacring with a trough is pretty tacit, rudimentary meteorolgy.

Absolutely agree.

I don't agree.

He looooooves him some warm

Agree.

Same....All Christmas once the lights go out Halloween night.

I think max intensity will he 125mph prior to landfall at 110mph...but will do Final on Thursday.

I have just about the same correlation as you do.