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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expected a pretty warm November and December.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    If course. I'm not saying it doesn't manifest during the day at all..obviously it does...especially during the cold season. Summer is def more in the way of warmer nights and consistently higher dews.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not a CC denier, so lets skip past that tension.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm being sarcastic, but it is most pronounced at night.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    @512high...May have to coordinate with you early on the subsciption launches....will have to watch this weekend.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Are there a few others?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't really give a rat's ass if the warm night time lows are more anomalous than the cold shots...sorry to those who lose sleep over that. Just give me a cold enough airmass to snow and a low over the islands.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Big underpferomer here Wednesday night, but made up for it last night. 18.1 for the low.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still not an average snowfall season here since 2017-2018....closest was within like 10-12" when I got 51" in 2020-2021.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    "More days in first place"....
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looked great at H5.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hometown of Derek Lowe!!
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep...save ofr maybe March.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Only part of that I don't expect is a -NAO/+PNA in the mean, but nor do I think either will be extremely positive and negative, either....there will be variance. WPO should drive this winter in conjunction with PDO.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, he's gonna be making Webb voo doo dolls by turkeyday.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm being facetious. But honestly...I don't care how much time is put in, you have to be mindful of trends with respect to bias and make changes to methodology when its not working out. This is why I have tried to incorporate climate change a lot more and address West Pacific aspects this season.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am also pretty confident we will see some blocking this year....the EPO is the big question for me.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    The next 2-3 weeks will be key because if the late November into December favorable stretch doesn't get muted or attenuated, then we are probably in business for the season. If you recall last season the favorable December flip got totally stripped down to just a bried NAO flex, which got laregely negated by the monster trough out west.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am pretty confident the N Pacific is going to be decent....what needs to be ironed out is whether or not its just a -WPO with no blocking and a +EPO, like 1999, or we also get the -EPO a la 2013 and/or some blocking mixed in. I hedged mainly -WPO with some blocking early and late, but if the -EPO is also consistently negative, then that is a the game-changer.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same. Last thing I wanted though is another 65" forecast that ends up 33" and Kev lighting up my threads with AIT. Honestly, though...can't always chase upside.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH I am nervous my forecast was too conservative. I'd rather that, though....two awful busts in a row that were to aggressive. I don't want to get the JB rep because its difficult to shake lol
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow..only 27.7 here...at 9:10pm, nonetheless....mixed out the rest of the night.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same..my only above average snowfall season since 2014-2015. It was still warm here, but March made it worth it.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Subsurface: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/ Coralreef: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone is wrong sometimes....its how you learn to be right more often, and develop some genuine humility along the way, which makes it easier to not dismiss anyone.
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