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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't really look at all of that back in 2013....I would just watch the models for snow in season and measure when it fell.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Full disclosure.....gonna use this in my current blog piece. Thanks.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure how early it was "obvious", but admittedly I only knew a fraction of the little that I know now, so....that was my first outlook attempt.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Any time you feel highly confident in racing to your laptop to convey seasonal throughts...pause, reflect and reconsider.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is why I didn't entirely agree with notion that ENSO will not be a large factor this year....the entire hemisphere has been in a cold ENSO state for several years, which will allow it to be more influencial than implied by the ONI. We saw this in 2022. I feel like the point regarding less emphasis on ENSO was very valid last season with respect to the El Nino and certainly ENSO in general is not as prevalent a driver as it was 10-20 years ago.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree on 2017-2018, but 2014 was a bit more tricky in that it was entirely Pacific driven.....and I am willing to bet that most folks who went big expected a lot of NAO blocking, which includes myself.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously this will be easier to pull off with latitude. If you didn't go well in 2007 or 2008, then you can probably pack it in save for maybe a fluke event.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its definitely not going to be a picturesque H5 plot for NE winter aifionados...I think that is a given. ...but that doesn't mean we can't get some more unconventional means of winter weather delivery. Key will be poleward ridging and shape/orientation of PV, etc.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Often the most difficult ones to predict end up being the ones perceived as being easy leading in because we are usually missing something. I think 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 are the pathways to better winter outcomes.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Would go along with the idea of a slightly distubred PV early on before it really consolidates.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fair enough....we generally agree.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't say "drive".....it enhanced it.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its enhacing convection over the MC, which is congruent with cool ENSO forcing. This is why 2022-2023 featured one of the most powerful cool ENSO Walker Cells on record, despte only registering -1.0 ONI.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think I agree with that in terms of La Nina, as the west Pac warm pool, which is augmenting the impact of cool ENSO, appears at least somethwhat attributable to CC....this is why RONI is about .5 more robust than ONI. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1Do you have any sort of data to back up your +NAO/+PNA link?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree that winter looks bleak...just saying, not sure this season will be the most glimmering illustration of how ENSO is losing relevence...at least not ostensibly, anyway.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, regardless of whether you want to attribute it to ENSO or the west Pacific, the hemispohere will be cool ENSO like this season.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    @weatherwizHave you noticed the site to use the 1951-2010 and other climo periods isn't working? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you are obfuscating the trend towards a weaker peak ONI of La Nina and the tendency for CC to partially negate ENSO....I think the latter issue was more prevalent last season when we had an El Nino. If anything, the opposite is the case this season....and RONI reflects that. A giant west PAC warm pool will accentuate cool ENSO and attenuate warm ENSO.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, its the Kevin Wood Oscillation.....alway s+ 3/1 through 9/30 and - from 10/1 through 2/28(29).
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    2022 is high, high on my analog list.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is in actually incorrect.....they can all have an impact, but said impact differs based upon size and location.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its all climo....once the KWO flips negative on 10/1, far, far different tunes will be sung.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think what will help is that we are resigned to it....I don't think anyone is overly optimistic. That is probably when our shit luck flips.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sorry to hear. My dad has been gone just over 10 years now.
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