40/70 Benchmark

The globe has warmed some since 2014....but lets not talk like its some far away galaxy...part of the reason it wasn't as cold is the WPO. I am also willing to bet some deep southern areas were snowier than they were that season...I know many northern areas were not as snowy due to precipitation, not temps...so while obviously a replica season (including -WPO) wouldn't be as cold, nor would said cold be as expansive, I think it could still be as snowy and perahps snowier in some spots.

Beat ya for once lol

I could have sworn 2021-2022 was a mismatch season...interesting that we still managed a mismatch period minus the amplified October MJO....I could certainly see something like that occurring this season. I agree this season will probably be warmer with a more consistently negative PNA, yet still manage more snowfall.

Probably warm ENSO for 2026-2027.

"40/70....I am your father" (breathes heavily)

@bluewaveSeriously, though....I do recall telling you last season that I expected your October MJO indicator to be amplified and favorable and I do expect that again, so we'll see.

I don't want to sound too optimistic because Bluewave will be on my door step.

Yea, I think we will have some servicable stretches...but overall the west-urine pool does of course remain.

@ORH_wxmanWas actually metioning the other day how this year kind of resembles some of the older cool ENSO events in that there is more cooler water near the west coast than in the recent ones.

Jinx. I will add that JMA essentially ENSO neutral, too....slight hedge towards cool ENSO, so the EMI really isn't a big deal, but I would rather have it east all things equal. Yes, snowman...I know how the Pacific looks right now...just speaking of the model.

I think we are going to see some variation and another periood of the season that deviates from the west Pac urine pool.

Not that its a big deal considering La Nina shouldn't be too strong, but JMA seems to imply an east based event along the lines of 2021. Just speaking of La Nina EMI...I do realize that solar is much different and La Nina will be weaker. JMA hovers the EMI around -.3 or so during the winter...which is similar to 1995-1996, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. First of all...no, 1995-1996 is not a seasonal analog, so please spare me Bluewave's wrath (jk....kinda). But signs like this reenforce my early suspicion that this will not be a wall-to-wall death star season.

The season should def. average +NAO...I am just speaking to how favorable or unfavorable it is to steal a -NAO month or two.

Looks like August 2024 was the peak? It takes a couple of years for the solar wind to in increase enough to kick up the geomagnetic particles, which is what is the most hostile for blocking....we may sneak by with one more season that is not awful. "recent studies of seal level pressure patterns that revealed a +NAO pattern lagging solar max by approximately 2-4 years. The work of Maliniemi et al also showed that this relationship is not at all dependent on overall sunspot activity due to intra-cycle variability." Mean winter NAO index values for the four cycle phases, averaged over cycles 11 to 23. The red line represents the overall mean value of wintertime NAO (0.05). Bars represent the 95% confidence interval

It was merely making an anecdotal observation pertaining to the behavior of the PDO; nothing more. I wasn't deducing anything from it. Do I think the PDO will rise this winter? Yes...do I think that will be particulary important? No. I have already said that the PNA is likely to be more consistently negatibve than last season and that I expect the +WPO to continue. I forecast seasonal index behavior, not just weather....so the behavior of the PDO independent of the actual weather is relevent. There wasn't any emotion involved...I was simply adding a little levity to the discussion, as I so often do. But it is true that I can always discern which posts you will swarm to like an ant to spilled soda...I knew how my post would be perceived ostensibly speaking, which would prompt a replay form you.

How did I know that Bluewave's advanced optimism alarm system detected a faint modicum of hope in my post, and that he would rush to the scene to douse the flame in short order. Dude is the Darthvader of seasonal forecasting.

Very hottest part is actually the next week.

Anyone have any idea when they are going to update the MEI?

I think I recall this happening last season....the PDO bottomed out last fall as if Armageddon loomed for winter enthusiasts, and then steadily reversed throughout last winter. Obviously it will remain at least somewhat negative throughout winter, though...as it did last season.

Oh, okay...I was talking about winter.

Like I said...not as bad as this week.

Next week doesn't look as hot...dews not withstanding.

Kevin must be sprawled out nude on his lawn...laptop and syringe in hand just injecting this into his veins.

I hate summer, but I keep it real...this is the heart of due season and other then a day or two repreive such as will be observed this weekend, its pretty much unabatred dews for a good 6 weeks.