40/70 Benchmark

BTW, I referenced the parallel between Feb 2000 and this past Feb by way to the storngly positive PNA (by calculation), there was also a parallel during the month of March, as the SSW was similar both in terms of evolution and timing. This was my primary SSW analog. Given that the QBO analog of 2020-2021 took place near solar minimum, the early January 2021 SSW is of least relevance as a viable analog occurrence this season. However, the February 2023 SSW, which is a better solar analog, lends more support to a later season potential polar vortex disruption along the lines of March 1971 and 2000. This notion is supported by research on high solar, westerly QBO seasons, which lends credence to the late winter/early spring displacement scenario. The research clearly implies that a displacement of the PV triggered by a SSW beyond mid month is a distinct possibility based on the history of westerly QBO seasons that have occurred near solar max, and this is precisely what took place. Note the displacement of the PV in concert with the warming polar stratosphere that had already begun prior to mid month. The event continued to evolve until a reversal of the zonal winds occurred around March 20th, as suggested by the analogs. The research also suggested that any cold resulting from the PV disruption would be insufficient and/or too late to bias the monthly mean negative and that has also proven correct.

I think the CFS and CANSIPS did best last winter.

Yea...I figured the late SSW would manifest in April, which is why I wasn't opptimistic about March....too little too late. Same thing happened in 2000.

Consensus is currently for cool-neutral ENSO conditions, but I'm thinking warm neutral or perhaps even weak El Nino.

32" isn't the futility record for me.

Just noticed that there is a slight glaze on the rain gage and the bushes. 32.0

Glaze can't be far off....31.6

32.0

T for the month....Booingggg

Nearly moderate snow....decent growth

Snow in SW CT while ray rains Winter

32.5 Inching downward with flurries

Yea, I don't expect it to last...decent growth.

Flipped to snow... 33

We'll both get the same amount of snow....story of the season here.

Well, that is one way to kill a cool, raw early spring day...

34.2

Even my area with a hundreth of a inch.

Yup, what he said-

Just nusiance level there in the MRV, I would think...

Its also possible nobody really knows how warm it will get, and where....

Absolutely bonkers, while MJO is dancing naked under the spray of fire hydrants in Brooklyn.

Man, I can't even win in spring model hallucinations.

Yea, it has been like pulling teeth to get any -NAO winter seasons for a couple of decades now....while I do agree with Larry that the solar cycle is a factor (min favored for -NAO), I also think CC maybe affecting the Atlantic pressure pattern.