40/70 Benchmark

We had a -PDO decade like this...the 1950s...it was colder, but still sucked for snowfall. We didn't get "buried" in shit patterns before...they still sucked.

There's luck involved in everything....chaos, whatever you want to call it. The pattern can be perfect and sometimes it just doesn't work out. We did have an El Nino like 2023-2024...it was 1972-1973...-PDO /strong Nino combo. It was just as awful in terms of snowfall, but not as warm.

I agree.

Again...agreed on the fast flow. Said that a few times....but if you are getting stuck in forcing patterns that destructively interfere with east coast amplification, you have two options: 1 The storms develop and amplify elsewhere....great leakes 2 You get a storm on the southeast coast in a cold pattern that can't amplify enough to clime the coast until it's over Atlantic, and becomes a Maritimes storm. I agree I don't think it's permanent...Mother Nature will find a way.

YES..absolutely agreed,...we have had extended periods of unfavorable forcing. I'm not saying this is anything that hasn't happened before, but I just think the CC is enhancing it a bit this go around...just like it will enhance the snow the next time we get croacked. The west pac warmth is enhancing the MJO in the crap phases, an making it averse to the favorable phases.

Not arguing this. Agreed.

When the tropical forcing isn't favorable, it's like a scene out of the horror series "Final Destination" for east coast amplification....the atmosphere isn't going to flash a check engine light warning that hemispheric forcing regime is unfavorable...but what will happen is you will see phasing attempts retarded/sabotaged by defects like nipple lows, and chasing convection, which those who don't understand, or who wish to bury their head in the sand will attribute to "luck".

I don't follow you... We have an arctic flow from Canada over the eastern half of the country in a +TNH pattern....we have a disturbance in the jet stream that pops a low on the southeast coast due to the regime being so suppressed....but if you have tropical forcing that destructively interferes with east coast amplification you tell me what you think is going to happen after that suppressed storm hits the se coast????

Yes, that is how forcing works, JD. What is favorable for one area isn't inimical to others.

Right, but it is a factor....you can't be dialectical with this stuff.

No, the flow is faster...that is real. I just don't buy that this why we aren't getting storms bc other areas are...that's why I think it's more a combo of forcing, -PDO and bad. luck.

Well, if you have a powerful +TNH pattern, storms are going to have to form to the south, but you don't see them phasing proficienty to get up the coast until they are over the Atlantic. This is why when you watch the news, there is nothing more than flurries in your forecast tomorrow.

Right...that is my issue with the fast flow narrative.

I agree with him that CC is a factor, but like I said, I think it's more an issue convective forcing destructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...the storms are forming, just not near the BM. Either the lakes or Maritimes.

If you notice, we have still yet to pull off a big coastal all-season long...the one big event was a half-assed low slamming into an arctic dome. It was a cheat code to a boring pattern.