40/70 Benchmark

PDO was only -1.01 for February....I don't get the reluctance so fathom a flip in the fact of a strong El Nino.

People saying "I don't see any sign of the PDO flipping"...no shit, we don't see any sign of the El Nino yet. It's like convincing yourself on the ocean that it's going to remain snowing before the low comes closer and the wind flips onshore.

I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip.

We'll see. I'd bet against it, but my early guesses are often wrong because they're just that....guesses.

2004-2005 may be a fine analog if you account for the fact that El Nino will be stronger.

Good all on 2009-2010...that was a slight -PDO......so there was three consecutive prior to 2014. I feel like if we remain negative PDO again, it's going to be more like 2004 and 2009 in that it won't be severely so. I could see something like that.

Maybe something like this?

We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes. 1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with.... My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.

You are right, but I highly doubt we see another one like that given how similar 2023-2024 was to 1972-1973. I think El Nino ends up weaker and further west than that.

Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade.

Yes, I agree. I don't think weak, but nor do I think 2.0+.....so we can work with that.

Yea, I have been saying that I don't see this is an uber-El Nino that will fry the east. Generally agree, though haven't delved deeply into analogs at this early juncture. 2002 is one I speculated on.....just conjecture right now.

I think the strong -QBO/high solar/modest La Niña combo wast timed just right for the past winter.

Sure...just like 2009-2010 could have been snowier up here and the Pats could have been undefeated in 2007. But I'm a fan of the scoreboard.