40/70 Benchmark

How far did this actually track outside of the Benchmark?

I think it was the ENSO subsurface that I liked about 2012, if I recall correctly...

@WinterWolfYou remember when I mused to you last fall about how I almost included 2012-2013 as an analog, but didn't due to ENSO? Ha......there was indeed some value in that season after all. 2014-2015 was actually just about as perfect a QBO/solar analog as you will find....so the manner in which this season has unfolded isn't too surprising, even though I kind of gagged om the monthly composite this month. It's astounding how much you learn through the trial and error of actually doing this seasonals...can't teach that in a class.

My current spot was scooter for that...like 15 mi out.

I would have traded places.

40" can happen inland if you get under the banding long enough...NYS had in VD 2007....many areas in December 2020.

I mean, you still had 2 feet...even I wouldn't have bitched about that.

Tradeoff I am willing to make TBH...give me a decade of shit winters if we get an event like that.

Shit, he'll be whining in March, when I get a lousy, damn 7" SWFE that rains on him.

Well, tell CC I'm about due for my reach around.

Not over IMO.

That is bit too early to be impacted by the reversal...lag time is like 15 days at this juncture.

My KU window was off by like 6 days on the blizzard...was March 1-15.

This was my best outlook to date in the 11 years I have been doing it, but it wasn't perfect by any stretch. There are avenues for improvement that I will discuss in the post season analysis...most notably, I emphasized the thawing PT regimes too much in the composites, so the temp composites were not cold enough....thought H5 was very good. I pretty much nailed the progression of the strat.

Yea, -PNA from here on out, as expected....but that was also the case in March 2018, one of my two main strat analogs, along with 2001. It won't be as cold, but not will it be prohibitive to snow.