40/70 Benchmark

That's my concern 2023...but then again, I'm not sure winter enthusiasts would feen any better if the RONI and ONI were in lock-step.

It works both ways...we get caught in brutal stretches for extended periods, like these past several years, but we can also go on a run, too....like last decade. Brutal periods are warmer and great periods are warmer and wetter.

That's what I have always maintained...if we hit like 2035 and are still in that pattern, then I'll capitulate....but the tide already seems to be turning. Obviously the world is warming....I'm not disputing that, but I'm just referring to the ability to discern the degree to which these patterns/phenomena are a byproduct of CC versus how much they are attributable to natural variation. The atmosphere is still cyclical...it's just warmer, and some of said cycles are becoming augmented and somewhat increasingly stagnated.

I noticed that Box stealthily removed mention of it "becoming M Sunny", and now simply describes the day as "M Cloudy".

42.3 1/4mi Visibility Rectal Plaque+

Yea, I mean.....I do think some of this is a byproduct of CC, but clearly many are embellishing the degree to which it factors in. We are also still in the declining phase of the solar cycle, which is not where you want to be for abundant NAO blocking, and it's going to be a long climb out of this Pac cold phase, so there are some additional lean times ahead. I'm not not convinced winter 2026-2027 will be one of them as of yet. Part of my rationale for looking at 1957 and 2002 is because they were in the descending phase of the solar cycle following an extended Pacific cold phase, during a +QBO/healthy El Nino.

I'll bet I could teach a class on that at this point even without ever having earned a met degree...theoretically speaking of course. Wholeheartedly agree on having commenced a Pacific phase shift....better times are ahead.

I would love to take a class like that, which focuses on seasonal forecasting and doesn't try to stuff Calculus 8 down your throat.

1957-1958 is my early leader in the clubhouse, and then I was reminded of it when looking at CANSIPS....but we need to be leery of how the warmer west Pacific interacts with ENSO because I got duped into interpreting 2023 as a Modoki look. That being said, it should be be that bad because the Pac has improved since then...maybe something in between 2023 and 1957.

1963-1964 and 1968-1969 were truly high-end winters around here.....1986-1987 was good, and 2015-2016 and 1972-1973 were bad. Goes along with my early hedge that anything sub-super El Nino will be good. I just can not fathom another extremely -PDO +ENSO like 1972-1973 and 2023-2024. I would be absolutely stunned if we see another one that extreme at this point. 2015-2016 is a valid concern, but I would be modestly surprised if this one gets that strong. Again, the largest risk is a 1991-1992/1994-1995/2006-2007 type of season that combined a modest -PDO with an extremely hostile polar domain. 1991-1992 was the most hostile, as the latter two at least offered a late window of opportunity.

Have you considered the possibility that this next El Nino ends up BEING accompanied by a modest +PDO?

March forecast review: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/04/march-warmer-than-forecast.html Not a bad effort for the month of March overall, but it ended up much warmer than forecast on a national level due to the failure of high latitude blocking to materialize following the split of the polar vortex, which was a forecast risk that was communicated last fall. Locally here in southern New England it was anywhere from 2 to 4*F warmer than normal, as opposed to the forecast of -2 to near normal. Seasonal recap incoming in May.