40/70 Benchmark

I wonder if our resident -not-so-secret @CoastalWx admirer, Boris has put his clothing back on... @CoastalWx, take a peek outside your bedroom window and check...

Wow, that is probably too weak, but I'm balls-deep in ENSO right now, so only keeping peripheral tabs.

Doubtful....it's just unlikely to be as memorable as many starving weather enthusiasts would like.

I mentioned yesterday it's often overamped....I mean, it probably will have had the better idea when all is said and done, but it will also probably have capitulated to an extent relative to the more ominous runs.

I hope it rains a good deal, but I couldn't give a rat's a$$ about the "wind" and all of those fraud threats.....unless you live right at the shore. I know the people that sounded the alarms are going to inevitably cry foul based on perceived modeling failures, but the fact of that matter is that it's September and excitement is an exceedingly rare climatological phenomenon around these parts. This time of year, I'd be content to get my rocks off to drought relief and seeing the decadal precip hole fill as winter nears.

Yes, but much needed rain.

It absolutely will....but I think it could also be snowier, and in fact it likely will be.

Don't forget the fact that the solar cycle and QBO are also more hostile. In the interest of being truly exhaustive, I think you also need to consider the ramifications of that 30 years of warming on the Pacific basin, as it's been biasing convective forcing westward relative to expectations derived from traditional diagnosis, such as max ENSO SST anomaly.

1983 followed a very common El Niño Modoki Index trajectory in that it began extremely east-based, then began to decay westward post-peak. I still expect this one to do that to an extent, but I must admit I no longer as confident that it will do so to the extent of 1983. I am in the process of revising things and now expect to remain more east-based than I did over the summer....large impact on the forecast? Nope.

I agree with you. I started off conservatively with this El Niño, until I could see the white of history's eyes, which I am viewing. My update-in-progress has it 3.0 to 3.2. The Euro is at like 3.5, which I am confident is wrong because that is essentially as high as the ONI, which isn't happening. Should maintain like a .4 deficit in relation to the ONI...like 2015.

December forcing looks like 1997 to me, though it will be warmer this year due to the solar and stratosphere...January looks like 1983. The days of always being able to discern the placement of convective forcing by simply viewing where the max SST anomalies are within ENSO are gone...believe me, I blew up my outlook doing it in 2023.

Take a look at some of the modeling......convection is further west than you would think looking at the SSTs...my guess is that it's due to all of the warmth throughout the basin pulling it westward, as was the case in 2023....only that season was even further west and into the MC. Forcing is def. west of 1997 and 1982:

December looks pretty east-based to me. The Feb 1983 -NAO was the result of stratospheric reflection, which is as a byproduct of a STRONGER PV due to the westerly QBO....not sure I agree it was the result of a weaker PV tied to more Modoki like forcing. This season is absolutely a candidate for that wave one blocking like 1983.

That would have been obvious to someone considering the solar and stratosphere implications. I bet a pattern like 1983 would have a more poleward/inland STJ given the more modest PDO.

I get that it's fluid, as is everything.....but it's been a consistent theme. Here is the graphic from a month ago: The graphics are tools, not substitutes for critical thinking. We have a developing record El Nino abutting a decade of cool ENSO residue throughout the N HEM....this resistance makes sense, and is not the product of some short-term perturbation. Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS.