40/70 Benchmark

Thanks so much. Where is that fronto option of TT? Having trouble finding it...does it require subscription?

-EPO (+TNH) was a byproduct of high solar and exceptionally strong easterly QBO....like this year. The fact that it was a modoki El Niño helps, yes.

Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.

You are 100% WRONG....weak El Niño is best in SNE because the STJ is less pronounced....that is the reason I nailed that winter in my first outlook. I looked at ENSO as said with would be a SNE winter.

I give this winter a solid "B" so far.....can't give it an "A" being at normal snowfall after getting boned on the '78 redux. Let's see what can. happen during the final stanza to move this up...

I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.

I was off by 6 days on the Blizzard, too....my largest KU window began March 1.

I should also add that the east doesn't even necessarily need a reversal because I this that the first half of March will be wintry, anyway.

Early March was my last window.

This, combined with the 50-75 shift south, is what killed me. This is a lesson that I'll take from this.....that band set up over ORH CO into S NH just like I thought it would, but it just wasn't very impressive. I think jan 2022 was like that , too. Could you provide a graphic to illustrate this? Thanks in advance. I need to get better at band/fronto diagnostics. I am too weak with that.

Mid March is okay where I live...but too late for most..late March is even pushing it for me. May just be more like. final warming, similar to last year....too bad my the period earlier this month didn't end up working out like I had though. Our best bet would be getting this to be a "top-down" type of event, in which effects are virtually immediate.

I'm not like the @raindancewx guy, who had most of the snow away from the east coast. Glad I went at least normal to somewhat above for snowfall on the east coast. I used 2014 as a seasonal analog and 2015 as a +TNH analog because I thought it would be really fucking snowy where 95% of us live in winter 2025-2026. Now we really have a "smiley face".

Yea, 24-25" average depth with 36" peak here...great winter.