40/70 Benchmark

This is why we are seeing less of an Aleutian low/se trough response.

1957 is best subsurface map in terms of placement AND intensity of subsurface warm pool. It's also a good polar analog in terms of solar and QBO.

Exactly the type of analogs I was speculating on. 2002 is similar, but obviously weaker. I think the issue will be the NAO...1991-1992 was awful because it was the only strongly positive NAO/weakly -PDO, which we may very well have this year.

Got down to 23.2 this AM...recovered up to 53.1 39.6

Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.

Yea, here, as well...except for 1982, which was around normal.

Yea, the El Niño hype is unreal...and it has nothing to do with me having an aversion to a warm winter because I think that's likely, anyway.

Even 1997-1998 had a great event just before XMAS up here...only one that had literally nothing was 1972...you could say 2015, but that season had the January blizzard, it just skirted south of me.

I'll be shocked if we get through the early 2030's without a flip.

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

Okay, yes...fair post. To me, it makes sense that the strongest of ENSO events, which are El Niño, reverse....but I can't say definitively that that trend will not cease with more data. We will just have to see. I wasn't trying to be dismissive, so sorry if it came across that way.

Thank you. January 7th, 2024 was an incredible event for me.