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Early January Major/Potential Record Cold


Hoosier

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Might be jumping the gun here but I was floored by what the 12z Euro is showing.  It's certainly one of the coldest Euro runs I've ever seen in all my years on these boards (haven't even seen the GFS show something that extreme too often lol).  The GFS supports it to some extent though less severe in magnitude especially in terms of 850 mb temps.

 

The cold blast looks to coincide with a plunge in the EPO and a -AO.  Obviously the million dollar question is just how cold will it get but given the expansive snowcover and more to be added this week, I feel like there's a pretty good chance of a very significant cold shot even if we see some modification in the models as the time approaches. 

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The polar air can't be ignored this season...and has been over preforming some respects in various setups....one of which was with a limited snowpack....broken records wouldn't shock me

 

on the other hand we've also experienced moderation as long range turns to short range.   Take the late week system for example.  A week ago it was modeled as a suppressed system overwhelmed by the PV.  It looked like a winter threat to the southern midatlantic.

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on the other hand we've also experienced moderation as long range turns to short range.   Take the late week system for example.  A week ago it was modeled as a suppressed system overwhelmed by the PV.  It looked like a winter threat to the southern midatlantic.

 

very true in regards to long range modeling...was just speaking in terms of short range forecasts via WFO's and shorter range modeling.  But my major point was that we have experienced multiple rounds of sub zero temps already even through December alone, so it wouldn't shock me to see things come to fruition somewhat via what is modeled now.  But, yeah, the southward extent and breadth of the cold core is still up for grabs for sure

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I really hope something resembling the Euro pans out.  It's almost a perfect confluence of factors to put up some outrageous numbers with the deep snow field and time of year.  The one thing that may be a problem for some areas is lack of ideal radiating conditions at night but it almost doesn't matter if temps aloft are anything like this.  Look up the legendary cold days for Chicago or any other city...many of them did not have ideal radiational cooling.

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I really hope something resembling the Euro pans out.  It's almost a perfect confluence of factors to put up some outrageous numbers with the deep snow field and time of year.  The one thing that may be a problem for some areas is lack of ideal radiating conditions at night but it almost doesn't matter if temps aloft are anything like this.  Look up the legendary cold days for Chicago or any other city...many of them did not have ideal radiational cooling.

 

Yeah I agree.  If we're gonna be cold let's set some records.  Gotta love and appreciate the brutality of ma' nature.  The heating bills are gonna suck, but we've had it pretty good in that category the last few winters.

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Not -20° at LAF on Tuesday morning at least....or this run. Pushing -30° here.

 

post-7389-0-75282000-1388386975_thumb.jp

 

post-7389-0-33418300-1388387402_thumb.jp

 

Chicago's top 10 coldest readings.

 

Jan. 20, 1985 -27

Jan 10, 1982 -26

Jan. 16, 1982 -25

Dec. 24, 1983 -25

Dec. 24, 1872 -23

Jan. 17, 1982 -23

Jan. 19, 1985 -23

Jan. 21, 1984 -22

Dec 22, 1872 -21

Feb. 9, 1899 -21

Dec. 23, 1983 -21

Jan. 18, 1994 -21

Jan. 9, 1875 -20

Jan. 25, 1897 -20

Jan. 20, 1984 -20

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According to this article, Lake Ontario completely froze over in February, 1934.

http://www.mynewwaterfronthome.com/greatlakesfreeze.aspx

 

I wondered whether Lake Ontario would stay open somewhat due to it's depth. Lake Superior has never froze over I know. Probably the case with Huron as well.

 

Superior and Huron as huge in area, and the winds would keep areas open.

 

----

 

If it does get that cold, Brewers - I hope we moderate quickly!

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