All Activity

Oh wow, so 5 of the warmest starts to the year have occurred in the past 24 years? That's concerning.

oh you mean linear like this? I guess this raises the chances for severe winds

That pizza looks dreadful.

This weather sucks ass

Heard one very good rumble when some cells popped up nearby a couple hours ago (a good sign for me today especially having missed out on all the action up north during this past week). Watching the cells this afternoon southwest of San Antonio that are currently gathering along the boundary that can be seen fairly well with all the activity ongoing now from Del Rio - Houston. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0186.html Given these early May afternoon convective scenarios down around here in the past, a few discrete supercells tend to erupt along such outflow fronts and move southeast all the way to the coastal bend before dissipating when they move off the coast. HRRR was also really hinting at that on yesterday 0z evening run. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two manage to get down into deep STX also. Second round moving into Houston now. Definitely would not say things are done around there (possibly more organized third round). At least until this evening as there’s definitely a boundary hanging around there and another shortwave (causing the new storms southwest of San Antonio) that will be approaching SETX later this afternoon.

Moderate rain down here currently

There’s still way too much uncertainty on about where ONI/RONI will be for ASO. The new (warmer) Euro is *fwiw* forecasting a borderline weak/high end cold neutral La Niña for ASO. The Euro tends to be too warm more often than being too cool (warm bias). Now one might feel that after such a significant cool back in this new run that this latest forecast has a decent chance to not be too warm. Perhaps but who knows? But let’s assume ASO will end up ~-0.5 like it has. Where would RONI likely be? Recent trends would suggest a good chance of it being cooler by, say, 0.4 to 0.7. If that were to verify, you’d have ASO RONI of -0.9 to -1.2. That would be right on the border of the most dangerous for the US 0 to -1.0 and the not as dangerous -1.1-.

So zero expectations for next winter? I guess I won’t be needing my snowblower anymore. Should I put it on eBay?

Yeah I thought we might only get a tenth of an inch, but radar definitely blossomed a little bit compared to how it looked a couple hours ago. Looks like HRRR is gonna be wrong about our area getting only about a tenth of an inch. Looks like we'll get a solid quarter inch now. At least that'll be enough to give the garden a decent watering.

Currently, the MDR is 2nd warmest since 1982, barely behind 2010. So, keeping that in mind:

From other thread, does the ONI/RONI strength hint at some protection for the US despite a forecast active season?

Recurrent deep trough in the east and many rain chances the next two weeks mini drought busted. That was fast. Won't be long before we want it to stop raining lol

Some hints of clearing to the west…next step is to see how well the wedge gets scoured out east of the mountains.

Heavy rain parked over me. 1.25 so far and still pouring.

looks like the heaviest rain is going north. Very light rain here 50

or October

For snow lovers in the east, the PDO has sadly become Pretty D@mn Overwhelming for our snow chances.

.70" of badly needed rain

And that's actually better than the 00z and 06z in the sequential order. I mean ... it's been getting better - imho. But still is above the vomit threshold - ha. One upshot is that it's keeping the pattern progressive while that +PNA trough spends that 5 days in there. We're not stalling lows in the area. I'm also noticing that we aren't pulling as much "blue line" S of the border as much as prior runs. Maybe it's bad pattern and at the same time the model's admitting that the sun is hot now. jeez

Rain moving out - 2 day total is .85".

Spitting rain and 52 in Manhattan. Sat next to Ben Stiller last night at Uncle Vanya, that was kinda cool.

It’s big time. Everything does seem lined up for a big season. The only caveat I’ll add is that we probably need to see decent early season activity in NS and maybe H to be in line for a highest end season. This is probably a long season through October/early November though.

You should get some decent rain this afternoon

Down to 51 now with light rain.